Blog For Arizona

Poll: GOP primary voters want Gov. Brewer to veto SB 1062

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

A poll of Republican primary voters taken this week reveals that a majority of Republican primary voters want Governor Jan Brewer to veto SB 1062. The Arizona Capitol Times (subscription required) reports, Poll: GOP voters want Brewer to veto SB1062:

In the automated poll of 802 Republicans by Coleman Dahm, a Republican political consulting firm in Phoenix, 57.1 percent of respondents who were asked about the bill said they would like Brewer to veto it. Only 27.6 percent said they want her to sign SB1062. The remaining 15.3 percent had no opinion. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

* * *

Bert Coleman, one of the firm’s partners, said that the poll was of “hard core” Republican voters who had voted both of the last two primary elections. He said the results show that even conservative Republicans believe the bill is bad for the state’s image and will harm its economy.

Now, you are scratching your head and asking yourself, "How is it possible that 50 out of 53 Tea-Publicans in the Arizona legislature voted in favor of SB 1062, when a majority of even Republican primary voters want Governor Brewer to veto this bill? How is it possible these Tea-Publican legislators were elected to office when they are so out of touch with their own constituents?"

Oxfam Report: The world's richest 85 people have the same amount of wealth as the bottom half of the population

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Growing income inequality is not just prevalent in the world's richest country, the United States. but is a global phenomenon.

The humanitarian organization Oxfam International has released a new research report, Working for the Few: Political capture and economic inequality, which finds that:

Almost half of the world’s wealth is now owned by just one percent of the population, and seven out of ten people live in countries where economic inequality has increased in the last 30 years. The World Economic Forum has identified economic inequality as a major risk to human progress, impacting social stability within countries and threatening security on a global scale.

This massive concentration of economic resources in the hands of fewer people presents a real threat to inclusive political and economic systems, and compounds other inequalities – such as those between women and men. Left unchecked, political institutions are undermined and governments overwhelmingly serve the interests of economic elites – to the detriment of ordinary people.

Cognitive Dissonance Part The Infinity

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The American people are their own worst enemy. David Safier has on occasion described this condition as battered person syndrome, where repeated cycles of violence and reconciliation can result in the following beliefs and attitudes:

• The abused thinks that the violence was his or her fault.
• The abused has an inability to place the responsibility for the violence elsewhere.
• The abused fears for their life and/or the lives of their children (if present).
• The abused has an irrational belief that the abuser is omnipresent and omniscient.

This may or may not explain why the American people keep returning for more abuse from the abusive GOP. But two incompatible headlines today at Talking Points Memo demonstrate that Americans certainly suffer from cognitive dissonance:

Poll: Majority Say This Congress Is The Worst In Recent Memory

-and-

Dems Drop 13 Points On Generic Ballot

Soooo, the takeway from this is that the "less-than-less-than-do-nothing" 113th Congress, the "Worst. Congress. Ever." due to GOP obstruction and sabotage by its anti-government insurrectionist Tea Party wing, nevertheless is being rewarded by Americans for its destructive behavior and gross incompetence? Maybe David is right. . . too many Americans appear unable to quit their abuser.

America's real problem: the 'haters'

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Gallup is out with another poll today showing approval of Congress in the single digits. Trust in Congress Gallups to single digits:

Just 8 percent of those surveyed Dec. 5 – Dec. 8 rated the ethical standards of members of Congress “very high” or “high.” This shameful low puts them one point behind car salespeople.

But here’s what’s being ignored. Congress is viewed with such contempt that its trustworthiness actually dropped from a similar Gallup survey conducted just a week later. In the poll conducted Nov. 26 – Nov. 29, the federal legislature was viewed by 10 percent of the public to have “very high/high” honesty and ethical standards. Car salespeople were the ones with the 8 percent “very high/high” rating.

So, in one week, Congress fell two points and car salespeople ticked up one point.

If opinion polls were like employee performance evaluations (which they are not), it would be fair to say that these "employees" are beyond redemption; it is time for them to be fired. Just pack up what they can carry in a box, and have security escort them out the door. Goodbye (and good riddance). This is a national scandal.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll: Democrats should go on the offense on 'ObamaCare'

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll of "battleground" congressional districts for the Women's Voices, Women Vote Action Fund and Democracy Corps released on Thursday recommends that Democrats go on the offensive on "ObamaCare." Are you listening Reps. Barber and Sinema? New WVWVAF Poll: Affordable Care Act Remains Popular with Rising American Electorate:

Survey Shows Unparalleled Support for Women’s Economic Agenda

WASHINGTON, DC – December 12, 2013 – The Affordable Care Act remains incredibly popular with people of color, unmarried women and other members of the Rising American Electorate, and a plurality in Republican districts and a majority in Democratic districts still support implementing “Obamacare” over repealing it. Those are some of the key findings of a major new poll (PDF) sponsored by Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund and conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps.

“Despite all the noise over the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, our polling shows that it remains popular among African Americans, Latinos, unmarried women and other members of the Rising American Electorate,” said Page Gardner, founder and President of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund. “They realize that the reform law will improve their lives and ensure that they have affordable and reliable health care. These often economically-vulnerable Americans make up nearly 54 percent of the voting-eligible population, and these are the voters who decide elections.”

A meaningless poll, and a reality check

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

A recent Rocky Mountain Poll (.pdf) by the Behavior Research Center found that half of Arizonans believe we are on the highway to hell, and only 13% plan to support incumbents for Congress. Here is how Howie Fischer at Capitol Media Services reported the poll results, Voters say they're ready to jettison Congressional incumbents:

A new poll suggests Arizona voters are fed up with the antics of their current congressional representatives and are ready to put the whole herd out to pasture.

Across the board, a majority of voters of all political persuasions, gender identifications, income groups and geographic locations told Behavior Research Center pollsters they’ve had enough, and a change is needed.

But it remains to be seen whether the anger at government dysfunction carries through to next year’s general election — and whether voters find the alternatives they are offered are any better.

More than half of all respondents said they will vote for someone else next year, rather than the person who is currently representing them. And when you filter it down to those actually registered to vote, nearly two-thirds said no to their current representative.

Reaping the whirlwind: GOP pays the price for its governing-by-extortion strategy

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Two new polls out this week demonstrate that the Tea-Publican governing-by-extortion strategy of taking the country hostage and shutting down the federal government, coupled with threatening to default on the full faith and credit of the United States has been devastating to the GOP. Will they learn their lesson? Nah.

This new poll from CNN is devastating to the GOP.

While President Obama is under water on his approval rating at 44 percent to 52 percent disapprove, the approval of Congress remains in the ocean depths at 12 percent.

The CNN poll finds that Americans have more confidence in President Obama than the Republicans to deal with the major issues facing the country by 44-31. Among moderates, those numbers are 51-24; among indys they are 34-30; even 21 percent of Conservatives approve. Obama leads across all demographics by age, race, sex, education, income and region. Obama's lead among white (40-33) seniors (47-30), critical to the GOP in the midterm electorate, portends real trouble for the GOP.

Critically, the CNN poll finds that 54 percent of Americans think continued GOP control of the House is bad for the country, including 59 percent of moderates and 53 percent of independents; even 32 percent of Conservatives say it is bad for the country. This negative view of the GOP holds across all demographics by age, race, sex, education, income and region. This negative view of the GOP among white (49-43) seniors (56-39) portends real trouble for the GOP. (Only the 65+ age group is evenly divided).

The CNN poll asked some granular questions about the Affordable Care Act aka "ObamaCare" that most polls do not. 41 percent approve and another 12 percent say ObamaCare is not liberal enough. Only 38 percent oppose ObamaCare as too liberal. By asking the granular questions rather than the error-prone approve or diapprove dichotomy that distorts results, the poll produced a more accurate result.

The TanMan, Weeper of the House John Boehner, finds no love in this poll. 63 percent of poll respondents want to see him replaced as Speaker.

Tea-Publicans capitulate and surrender on the CR and debt ceiling (but will still vote no)

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Senator Ted "Calgary" Cruz and his 'Tortilla Coast Tea-Publicans', with an assist from the "Demented" Jim DeMint at the Heritage Fund (Heritage Action) and his Leadership PAC, the Senate Conservatives Fund, neutered the House GOP leadership last night and prevented any bill from coming to the floor.

The headlines this morning were deservedly unkind to the "Worst. Speaker. Ever.", the TanMan, Weeper of the House John Boehner:

New York Times: With G.O.P. Badly Divided, Boehner Is Left ‘Herding Cats’

Washington Post: Who controls the House GOP? No one.

Washington Post: The Republican Party: A collection of tribes with no leader

Washington Post: Where does John Boehner go from here?

There are lots more headlines like this elsewhere in the media today. It reminds me of that Charles Krauthammer opinion at the end of 2011 regarding The GOP's payroll tax debacle - Washington Post:

The GOP’s performance nicely reprises that scene in “Animal House” where the marching band turns into a blind alley and row after row of plumed morons plows into a brick wall, crumbling to the ground in an unceremonious heap.

It's déjà vu all over again. "Boehner's Bunglers" led the Tea Party Animal House into the blind alley of complete failure.

GOP government shutdown strategy damages the GOP

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The brand new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll Read the full poll here (.pdf) is a jaw-dropping disaster for the GOP. First Read: NBC/WSJ poll: Shutdown debate damages GOP:

By a 22-point margin (53 percent to 31 percent), the public blames the Republican Party more for the shutdown than President Barack Obama – a wider margin of blame for the GOP than the party received during the poll during the last shutdown in 1995-96.

Just 24 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion about the GOP, and only 21 percent have a favorable view of the Tea Party, which are both at all-time lows in the history of poll. [...]

Yet what is perhaps even more worrisome for the GOP is the “boomerang” effect: As the party has used the shutdown and fiscal fight to campaign against the nation’s health-care law and for limited government, the poll shows those efforts have backfired.

For one thing, the health-care law has become more popular since the shutdown began. Thirty-eight percent see the Affordable Care Act (or “Obamacare”) as a good idea, versus 43 percent who see it as a bad idea – up from 31 percent good idea, 44 percent bad idea last month.

In addition, 50 percent say they oppose totally eliminating funding for the law, even if it that means a partial shutdown of the government. That’s up from 46 percent who said they opposed that move in a Sept. 2013 CNBC poll.

Seventy-eight percent of the country, according to this poll, says the country is moving in the wrong direction and pretty much all of them blame it on the Republicans.

These are the kind of poll numbers that if this was October 2014 instead of October 2013, we would be looking at a Democratic "wave" election next month. Princeton’s Sam Wang examines the possibility of a Democratic “wave” in House elections next year given the shutdown backlash.

The tide is turning on 'ObamaCare'

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The new August tracking poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation, which is the resource for public opinion on the Affordable Care Act aka "ObamaCare," makes the case that the public is opposed to the Tea-Publican fantasy to "defund ObamaCare."

The public is decisive about its opposition to defunding ObamaCare, with 57 percent saying they would disapprove of such a move — including roughly one in three Republicans — while just 36 percent would approve.

The Kaiser poll proves what many establishment Republicans have been saying for weeks: The only way for their side to lose, politically speaking, is to focus the debate on removing the funding for it. And yet, this is what the pied pipers of the conservative media entertainment complex and Tea Party organizations like FreedomWorks and Americans For Prosperity are demanding. They are leading the GOP over the cliff.

No public support for Tea-Publican government shut down

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

So the question is, will the Tea-Publican leadership in the Congress follow the dictates of the unaccountable wingnuts in the conservative media entertainment complex and Tea Party organizations like FreedomWorks, Heritage Action, Club For Growth, Americans For Prosperity, etc., or will they listen to their constituents who are telling them not to march off the cliff to these pied pipers like a bunch of lemmings?

A new poll done for Tea-Publican members of Congress by pollster David Winston at the conservative Washington Examiner finds no public support for the threatened Tea-Publican hostage taking of America to shut down the government over "ObamaCare." GOP poll finds strong opposition to government shutdown:

A new poll done for Republican members of Congress has found huge public opposition, and solid opposition among Republicans, to the idea of shutting down the government over the issue of funding Obamacare.

In a national survey of 1,000 registered voters done July 31 and August 1, the question, from pollster David Winston, said, “Some members of Congress have proposed shutting down the government as a way to defund the president’s health care law” and asked respondents whether they favored or opposed that plan.

Overall, 71 percent of those surveyed opposed a shutdown, while 23 percent favored a shutdown. Among Republicans, 53 percent opposed, versus 37 percent who favored.

Why Americans are so ignorant and ill-informed

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

When Jay Leno does his "Jaywalking" segment asking people on the street basic questions about civics and political leaders that almost no one answers correctly, we are supposed to find this funny. I find it shocking and shameful. Being informed is a duty of being an American citizen.

So why are Americans so ignorant and ill-informed? Most of them get their news from the "tee-vee," and most of these "tee-vee" viewers are watching FAUX News Fraudcasting or TeaNN (formerly known as CNN).

Talking Points Memo reports, Gallup: Fox News The Top Source Of Televised News:

A study released Monday by Gallup found that television is the leading source of news for most Americans and that, among specific sources of televised news, Fox News tops all competitors. 

According to Gallup, 55 percent of U.S. adults identified television as their main source of news, compared with 21 percent who said the Internet, nine percent who said print and six percent who said the radio.

Special Session is over, appropriations bills sent to Governor

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The Special Session for the budget is over, but the regular session is continuing (no sine die yet). The Arizona Capitol Times (subscription required) reports Senate passes Medicaid expansion, sending it to the governor:

The state Senate approved Gov. Jan Brewer’s Medicaid expansion plan on an 18-11 vote this afternoon, sending it to the governor for her signature.

* * *

In the House, a coalition of nine Republicans joined with the 24 House Democrats to approve the spending plan on a series of 33-27 votes, setting the stage for end the first special session of the 51st Legislature, which Brewer called into action at Tuesday evening.

The Republicans in the House who voted for the budget were Rep. T.J. Shope, Rep. Frank Pratt, Rep. Kate Brophy McGee, Rep. Heather Carter, Rep. Doug Coleman, Rep. Jeff Dial, Rep. Doris Goodale, Rep. Ethan Orr and Rep. Bob Robson.

 

Some Amazing Flakery on Background Checks

Yesterday I called the Tucson office of Senator Jeff Flake. I told the staffer, I wanted to let y’all know that even though it’s been almost four weeks, people still remember that Senator Flake filibustered the most basic gun reform bill. She immediately interrupted me, saying:

"I’d just like to clarify one point: He did vote for cloture."

I said, Look, on the vote that mattered, Senator Flake supported the filibuster. Again she interrupted:

"I’d just like to clarify one point: He did vote for cloture."

I said, Stop lying to me. That’s not a clarification, that’s a deception. I am aware that there were preliminary votes where he did not bother to filibuster, and I am aware he promised a group of Sandy Hook survivors that he would not filibuster ... but on April 17th, on the last vote the Senate took, on the vote that derailed the effort, he filibustered. It’s a matter of public record. He didn’t just vote against it. He didn’t just vote to water it down. He blocked it from coming up for a majority vote. Background checks are supported by more than 90% of the citizens. Without the filibuster, the bill would have passed. Senator McCain voted one way, and Senator Flake voted the other way. He even talked about it on his facebook page ... so why do you object when I say the same thing?

"But he did vote for cloture."

I said, Look, lady, you must think the voters are really stupid. You must think I’m too stupid to remember how things went down ... but I do remember, and I’m going to make sure all my friends remember. At first I thought Jeff Flake was incompetent, doing ridiculous things by accident. Now it’s obvious y’all know exactly what you’re doing. It’s selfish, it’s corrupt, it’s evil, and it’s shameful. He’s been in office less than a year, but he’s already managed to become the #1 most unpopular member in the US Senate. That’s not easy to do, but he earned it.

'We have met the enemy and he is us'

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

A pair of headlines in the Washington Post today brings to mind Walt Kelly's Pogo cartoon, and his admonition that "We have met the enemy and he is us" -- Americans are responsible for the decline of their government:

People hate Congress. But most incumbents get re-elected. What gives?:

15 percent of people approve of Congress. 90 percent of incumbents win. Huh?

Poll: Fewer say Obama can 'get things done':

Fewer trust Obama's abilities after setbacks on sequester and guns . . .

Due to unprecedented GOP obstruction in Congress!

Public perceptions are being shaped by the Beltway media Green Lantern-ites who persist in the myth that President Obama possesses some super-hero power to bend Congress to his will. The Green Lantern Theory of the Presidency.

What the Beltway media villagers refuse to acknowledge and to accept is the simple undeniable truth presented by the high priests of Beltway centrism, Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein: "[W]e have no choice but to acknowledge that the core of the problem lies with the Republican Party." Let’s just say it: The Republicans are the problem.

So wake up America! Pull your head out of your ass. No super-hero is coming to save you from your own willful ignorance and lazy indifference to your government. You are your own worst enemy. You have no one to blame but yourself.

Sen. Jeff Flake now owns the dubious title of most disliked senator

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

In just three short months in the U.S. Senate, our boy Jeff Flake has managed to dethrone the Septegenarian Ninja Turtle, Mitch McConnell, as the most disliked senator among Americans. Getting caught lying to a grieving mother who lost her son to gun violence will do that. The Atlantic Wire reports, How Jeff Flake Became the Most Unpopular Senator in America:

Public Policy Polling, in their latest survey on the fallout of the recent vote on gun legislation, explains just how much people don't like Mr. Flake:

Just 32% of voters approve of him to 51% who disapprove and that -19 net approval rating makes him the most unpopular sitting Senator we've polled on, taking that label from Mitch McConnell.

Since December, it was hard to imagine anyone unseating McConnell because, according to PPP and despite the Kentucky Senator's internal numbers, the Senate Minority Leader was always' the old curmudgeon who represented the laughable state of America's hatred toward Congress.

* * *

So what happened to the junior Senator from Arizona? According to PPP's polling, conducted April 25-26 in the aftermath of the gun vote that killed legislation on background checks, it's blowback — Democrats and independent voters have really flaked on Flake:

'Kochtopus' push polling on Gov. Brewer's Medicaid (AHCCCS) restoration plan

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

I previously posted about the 'Kochtopus' astroturf campaign against Gov. Jan Brewer's Medicaid (AHCCCS) restoration plan.

This now includes push polling by the Colorado-based conservative polling firm Magellan Strategies commissioned by a "client who does not want to be identified."

A previous client of Magellan Strategies is the political consulting firm DC London, Inc., headed by GOP consultant Sean Noble. You remember him. Sean Noble also heads up the Center to Protect Patient Rights, an Arizona 501(c)(4) organization in the "Kochtopus." It was his organization which was the "dark money" conduit that laundered $11 million dollars to Americans for Responsible Leadership, an Arizona 501(c)(4) organization in the "Kochtopus," that California’s political watchdog agency said represented the largest case of campaign money laundering in state history. Sean Noble and campaign money laundering by the 'Kochtopus'.

It's a safe bet that the "client who does not want to be identified" is an operative from one of the tentacle organizations of the "Kochtopus."

The Arizona Capitol Times (subscription required) reported on the first push poll by Magellan Strategies on Wednesday. Dueling polls reach different results on Medicaid expansion support:

The Magellan poll showed marginal support for the Medicaid plan, with 41 percent of respondents supporting the plan and 37 percent opposing it. The 4 percent margin of support fell just outside the poll’s 3.44 percent margin of error. 

The auto-dial poll of 812 registered voters, which was conducted by Colorado-based Magellan Strategies, also showed a majority of Republicans opposing the expansion plan. A majority also said they would be less likely to vote for a lawmaker who votes for it. Sixty-three percent of Republican respondents, who made up 35 percent of the poll, said they would be less likely to reelect a legislator who voted for the plan, while 72 percent of the GOP voters said they’d be less likely to reelect a lawmaker who voted to fund the expansion with a new tax on hospitals.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' op-ed in the New York Daily News for universal background checks

Posted by AzBlueMeanie

Former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords penned an op-ed in the New York Daily News Sunday urging Congress to pass universal background check legislation. Gabby Giffords: Join the fight for safer U.S.:

We're all used to hearing people say that patience is a virtue.

I think about patience every day as I continue to regain my speech and the mobility I lost after I was shot in the head two years ago, while meeting with my constituents in the parking lot of grocery store in my district.

I think about patience and determination, because I still wake up every day wanting to make the world a better place.

But lately I’m not feeling too patient toward senators and representatives who are listening to the misinformation that’s out there about universal background checks instead of to their constituents, and saying they may not support common sense solutions to ending gun violence.

What are they waiting for? Ninety percent of Americans support universal background checks, which will be debated soon. Seventy-four percent of NRA members support background checks. Seventy-two percent of hunters support background checks, the Bull Moose Society reported this week. I can’t remember a time when this many Americans spoke with such a united voice in favor of anything.

Latinos to GOP: It's not your message, it's your policies

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The L.A. Times' Noam Levey reports today, "As Republican leaders try to woo Latino voters with a new openness to legal status for the nation's illegal immigrants, the party remains at odds with America's fastest-growing ethnic community on another key issue: healthcare."

It turns out that Latinos support "ObamaCare" (this is where the GOP's titular leader, Rush Limbaugh, claims it is because Latinos "depend on government for their prosperity.” ) Healthcare an obstacle as Republicans court Latinos:

Latinos, who have the lowest rates of health coverage in the country, are among the strongest backers of President Obama's healthcare law. In a recent national poll, supporters outnumbered detractors by more than 2 to 1. Latinos also overwhelmingly see guaranteeing healthcare as a core government responsibility, surveys show.

Yet congressional Republicans continue to make repeal of the 2010 Affordable Care Act a top agenda item and have renewed calls for deep cuts in health programs such as Medicaid, which are very popular with Latinos.

"Obamacare is a colossal mistake for our country," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said recently in a speech on the Senate floor. "It needs to be pulled out by its roots."

[A]ttacking the law risks undermining the RNC's planned minority outreach campaign, which party leaders said in a recent strategy blueprint must convince Latinos "we care about them."

"This is going to hurt Republicans," said Matt Barreto, cofounder of Latino Decisions, a nonpartisan national polling firm. "When Republicans keep saying they will repeal the health law, Latinos hear the party is going to take away their healthcare."

Obama, meanwhile, made upholding the Affordable Care Act a core part of his Latino strategy. A quarter of the president's advertising in Spanish focused on the law, said James Aldrete, who oversaw Spanish-language media strategy for Obama in 2008 and 2012. "We knew from the start that, if Latinos knew about the benefits of the law, they were going back the president," he said. "It was central to our messaging."

* * *

Surveys indicate that close to 30% of Latino citizens and legal permanent residents lack health insurance. By comparison, just 11% of white and 17% of black Americans are uninsured, according to the latest data from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Starting next year, the health law will provide hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies to low-income Americans and legal residents to help pay insurance premiums. Illegal immigrants cannot receive these subsidies.

90%+ of Americans want universal background checks; Sen. Flake: It's 'a bridge too far' for the GOP

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Every Senator who opposes expanded background checks needs to be asked whether they want the current background check law repealed. If they support the current law, then how is expanding the current law a threat to Constitutional rights? Greg Sargent writes, Don’t let Senators off the hook on guns:

Every Senator who is refusing to support expanded background checks — Republican or Democrat — needs to be asked a simple question: Do you support the current background system, or do you see it as an infringement on the rights of the law-abiding?

Every one of them will answer with a Yes, because they are taking refuge behind the idea that the current law needs to be strengthened in various ways but not expanded. Once they are on record confirming they don’t view the current system as a threat to Constitutional rights, the arguments against expanding it dissolve into incoherence.

Sen. Jeff Flake said on Sunday he could support improving the current system through better data sharing by states on the mentally ill and other such moves, while opposing expanding checks to private sales (leaving the massive gun show loophole in place).

America to the GOP: 'We need to break up'

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

"Baby, we need to talk. This relationship is unhealthy. We need to break up. It's not me baby, it's YOU -- you're freakin' scary nuts!"

And so America's dysfunctional relationship with the GOP comes to an end according to a new Pew Research poll. Andrew Kohut from Pew Research writes, The numbers prove it: The Republican Party is estranged from America:

In my decades of polling, I recall only one moment when a party had been driven as far from the center as the Republican Party has been today.

The outsize influence of hard-line elements in the party base is doing to the GOP what supporters of Gene McCarthy and George McGovern did to the Democratic Party in the late 1960s and early 1970s — radicalizing its image and standing in the way of its revitalization.

The public supports the Progressive Caucus Budget, which will not be adopted

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

I posted about this political science truism the other day (h/t Ezra Klein)  Still true after 40 years: Voters prefer cuts in theory, spending in practice:

In 1967, the political scientists Lloyd Free and Hadley Cantrill wrote that Americans were “ideological conservatives” but “operational liberals.” What they meant was that when asked broad questions about how government should work and what it should do, voters responded like conservatives. But when asked operational questions about which programs should be cut and which services should be eliminated, they responded like liberals. Voters like big cuts and smaller government in theory, but they don’t want to actually cut anything in practice.

This leads to cognitive dissonace between what people tell pollsters, and what they really desire. It also distorts sound public policy debate. Greg Sargent addressed this recently in The Morning Plum: A nation of Keynesians:

As many have pointed out, the House progressive budget — which calls for substantial new spending to create jobs and defers deficit reduction until later — has been almost entirely marginalized from the Washington conversation. Instead, the outer ideological poles of the debate have been defined by the budget from Senate Dems, which contains as much in spending cuts as it does in new revenues — and a tiny fraction of stimulus spending as an afterthought — and the Paul Ryan budget, which purports to rapidly slash the deficit only through huge spending cuts and contains nothing in new revenues or spending.

The Hispanic voter stereotype shop

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Rachel Maddow did a segment on Tuesday night about the GOP's new $10 million outreach to minority voters, in particular, to Hispanic voters.

The village idiot Aqua Buddha, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), addressed the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in Washington D.C. on Tuesday, "and on his way there he apparently stopped off at the Hispanic voter stereotype shop."

Clip:

Republicans have been losing both respect and votes of a group of people who already identify with many of our beliefs in family, and faith, and conservative values. Hispanics should be a natural and sizeable part of the Republican base. Defense of the unborn, defense of traditional marriage, are Republican issues that should resonate with Latinos.

As Maddow commented, "Should they? Why do you think that? You know if you actually look at the data, more than half of all Hispanics think that gay people should be allowed to marry. On abortion about two-thirds of Latinos think abortion should be legal. So your stereotypes about what Latino voters think, hey, turns out they're wrong. Also, they're stereotypes."

Why most opinion polls are crap: abstractions v. specifics

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

As someone trained in political science who has spent my entire adult life reading opinion polls and studies about polls, this report comes as no surprise to me. What I find hard to believe is how the media villagers waste so much time talking about their polls but never discuss the reason why their polls are crap: they test abstractions, not specifics.

Could it be because discussing this would undermine the Beltway media villager "conventional wisdom" that this is a center-right country? Abstractions produce the desired result for their "conventional wisdom." But specifics (reality) undermines their so-called "conventional wisdom."

Practice tip: one can always produce the desired result by how one frames the questions and limits options. This is how the media and their pollsters manipulate public opinion.

(Update) Media enablers of Pete Peterson's war on social security and Medicare

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Our sad small town newspaper, the Arizona Daily Star today republished an editorial opinion from the Neocon Washington Post, which has a partnership agreement with the Pete Peterson Group, a billionaire hedge fund manager who has dedicated his life to the destruction of social security and Medicare. Pundits who say debt's no problem have it all wrong.

As I have posted before:

The Washington Post has never included a disclaimer disclosing its partnership with Pete Peterson, and by extension, neither have any of the newspapers that subscribe to the Washington Post news service, including The Arizona Republic and the Arizona Daily Star.

Do you think it is aqppropriate that a billionaire hedge fund manager who has dedicated his life to the destruction of social security and Medicare is permitted to insinuate his think tank policy positions into news reporting and commentary at the Washington Post without that influence being disclosed in a disclaimer? How exactly does this comply with so-called journalistic ethics and standards? Shouldn't the media establishment be policing propaganda in hard news reporting? Or is "Foxification" of the news now complete?

Apparently the editors of the Arizona Daily Star think it is appropriate to publish Pete Peterson propaganda and to misinform its readers without an appropriate disclaimer.

Progressive values are not far-left, they are centrist American values

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

President Obama's Second Inaugural Address echoed themes from the Founding Fathers in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution,from Presidents Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and Franklin Roosevelt, and from the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. on his holiday.

The right-wing haters of the mighty Wurlitzer of the right-wing noise machine predictably clutched their pearls and reached for the smelling salts as they all got their panties in a twist. The right-wing haters dismissed the speech as a "far-left" liberal agenda that is "radical" and "extreme."

These right-wing haters are trying to convince the feckless "lamestream media" that America is a center-right country, which is funny, because what they are selling is not center-right at all but a radical and extreme dystopian vision. This is how propagandists move the fulcrum on the scale ever rightward to extremist positions, so that even a "conservative" president like Ronald Reagan would be dismissed by them today as a "socialist leftie."

The NRA is an outlier even among gun owners

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

In two public opinion polls released on Monday, it is clear that the NRA is an outlier even among gun owners. Greg Sargent post at The Plum Line:

The NRA represents an extreme worldview. A new Post poll finds that 65 percent of Americans support banning high capacity magazine clips; 58 percent support an assault weapons ban; and a whopping 88 percent support closing the gun show loophole.

Also: 89 percent of Republicans support closing that loophole, and 69 percent of Republicans support requiring background checks on those buying gun ammunition.

Public Policy Polling: Image of NRA and Tea-Publicans on the decline

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Public Policy Polling is out with a new poll today. The NRA, after Wayne La Pierre's performance art in the wake of the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre, is now viewed negatively by the public, 45% negative to 42% positive (and I assume most of these people still cling to the belief that the NRA is primarily a gun safety organization rather than the chief lobbyist for the merchants of death).

The public really hates the NRA's (and Attorney General Tom Horne's) idea to arm school teachers, with 64% opposed to 27% in favor; even gun owners are opposed to this idiotic idea.

The public is also opposed to putting armed police officers in schools, 50% opposed to 41% in favor.

The Tea-Publican Congress has only a 7% approval rating, with 81% disapproving. Which begs the obvious question: "What the hell were you people thinking?" You just had the chance to kick these clowns to the curb in November, and yet you voted to send then back! You don't get to complain about Congress when you are that freakin' stupid.

Tea-Publicans are upside-down by 60 points with all voters: only 15% of voters approve while 75% disapprove of them. Even among the Tea-Publican base, there is only 25% approval to 61% disapproval. So tell me again why we have a Tea-Publican Congress? This country is insane.

Moving the needle on public opinion: America's culture of gun violence

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

As I posted over the weekend, "be it resolved that this nation begins the debate about its culture of gun violence." This is a broader discussion than gun control.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that more than half of Americans see the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School last Friday as a sign of broader problems in society, not merely the isolated act of a troubled individual. The finding reverses a recent trend in which the public saw mass shootings in Aurora, Colo., and Tucson, Ariz., as aberrations that did not reflect underlying problems in American culture.

In a major reversal, a slim majority of Americans see the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary as a sign of broader problems in society, not merely an isolated act of a troubled individual, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

From the 2007 shootings at Virginia Tech through this year’s massacre at a theater in Aurora, Colo., the viewpoint that these were discrete episodes had been steadily increasing. The switch parallels a wave of bipartisan reaction to the mass murder in Connecticut that some speculate may prove a “tipping point” in the politics of gun control.

PPP Poll finds Tea-Publicans are friggin' nuts!

Posted by AzaBlueMeanie:

The latest Public Policy Polling survey has some truly disturbing findings about the mental health of Tea-Publicans: they are friggin' nuts! Republicans not handling election results well:

PPP's first post election national poll finds that Republicans are taking the results pretty hard...and also declining in numbers.

49% of GOP voters nationally say they think that ACORN stole the election for President Obama. We found that 52% of Republicans thought that ACORN stole the 2008 election for Obama, so this is a modest decline, but perhaps smaller than might have been expected given that ACORN doesn't exist anymore.

Acorn was driven out of business a couple of years ago by a 24/7 smear campaign at FAUX News Nation.

Wait, it gets worse.

GOP clings to positions rejected by the American people

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

On the same day that the top campaign advisor to Willard "Mittens" Romney, Stuart Stevens, penned an op-ed in in the Washington Post saying that Romney can take solace in the fact that he won the right kind of voters -- “On Nov. 6, Mitt Romney carried the majority of every economic group except those with less than $50,000 a year in household income,” -- class war anyone? -- the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds:

Sixty percent of all Americans back higher taxes on higher incomes in the new Post-ABC data. Earlier this month, an identical 60 percent of voters in the presidential election said income taxes should be raised on income over $250,000, according to the national exit poll.

Only 44 percent support new limitations on the deductions people can claim on their federal income taxes — a proposal that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney put forward during his unsuccessful 2012 presidential campaign.

Even fewer — 30 percent — favor raising the age for Medicare from 65 to 67, part of a bid by Tennessee Republican Sen. Bob Corker to avert the automatic spending cuts and tax increases that would hit if there is no deal by the end of the year.

The so-called "fiscal cliff" austerity crisis negotiations could be resolved today if Tea-Publicans would just stop clinging to positions rejected by the American people. Elections have consequences, Tea-Publicans made their case, and they lost. It is time for compromise -- give the American people what they voted for.

Interesting Exit Poll Data in Arizona

By Michael Bryan

Reviewing some very nice data from exit polling posted on The Arizona Conservative, I came across a few interesting factiods that are informative about the thinking of Arizona's electors. I suggest a look. You may find some interesting insights of your own for the comments.

First, was this:

Not terribly surprising that those voters who believed that Obama was primarily responsible for the current economic problems would vote for Romney. Very surprising, however, that 15% of those who blamed Bush would nonetheless vote for more of the same from Romney. Maybe those folks think that Bush wasn't sufficiently "supply sided" in his economic policies and want Romney to finish off the middle class?

Also interesting that 31% of those who think Romney favors the wealthy still voted for him: I guess that those 31% think they are in the 1% who would have benefitted of Romney's agenda? I don't think that math works... which demonstrates the brilliance of conservative propaganda.

Also interesting to me was this:

At first, I could not figure out why fully 44% of those who want Arizona to recognize same-sex marriage would vote for Romney, who opposes such policies. Then I realized that, of course, they were voting for Romney despite his position. They want same-sex marriage recognized, but it is not a high enough priority to overcome their support for Romney on other issues. In other words, these are 'fiscal conservatives' who believe (wrongly...) that Romney would be a superior choice on other (more salient) issues, but who now support marriage equality. That's an strong resevoir of support for marriage equality inside the GOP coalition. It may not be a strongly motivating value in a candidate campaign, but it could be decisive in an issue-oriented campaign, such as a ballot question.

Chris Hayes had a segment on his Saturday show about Arizona's exit polls and racialized politics that was very thought provoking. See that clip after the click...

Which pollsters were the most accurate?

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Dylan Matthews at Ezra Klein's Wonkblog posts Which pollsters to trust, in one chart:

One thing we’ve learned this election is that averaging polling data gets you pretty close to an accurate prediction. But particular polls are often badly off. According to Fordham’s Costas Panagopoulos, some of the least accurate polls came from surprising sources. Gallup, Rasmussen and NPR were among the worst, whereas YouGov, PPP and Ipsos/Reuters all nailed it.

RAND also had a good night. Their poll, which used an innovative methodology that tracked 3,500 people through Web surveys, predicted that Obama would get 51.7 percent of the two-party vote. He got 51.1 percent. Getting it right to within 0.6 percentage points is pretty good.

UPDATE: Nate Silver on which polls did the best (and worst) in 2012.

Latino Decisions Tracking Poll: Obama poised to win a record high share of the Latino vote

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

In the final Latino Decisions Tracking Poll before election day, President Obama is "poised to win a record high share of the Latino vote, and in turn likely to win key swing states and enough electoral college votes to retain the presidency." Latino Decisions: if Latino vote is high, Obama will carry 4 key swing states:

impreMedia & Latino Decisions today released the last in a series of 11 weekly tracking polls with results suggesting President Obama is poised to win a record high share of the Latino vote, and in turn likely to win key swing states and enough electoral college votes to retain the presidency. [View complete week 11 results here]

During the course of the 11 weeks of tracking, there have been fluctuations in Obama’s favorability and attitudes about key issues among Latinos, but overall results indicate the President has retained consistent support and Latinos report they are likely to turn out in record numbers.

Sixteen percent of respondents indicated that they had already voted early, with another 73% saying they were certain to vote, reflecting increasing levels of enthusiasm over the course of this poll.

The President’s support continued its steady climb with 64% saying they are certain to vote for him on election day and another 8% leaning towards him. Romney’s supporters also remained consistent, but overall he was unable to make significant inroads with Latino voters. Week 11 polling found 22% said they were certain to or might vote for Romney, compared to 24% during Week 1 polling.

Among likely Latino voters, those with consistent vote history or have already voted, 73% say they plan to vote for Obama compared to 24% for Romney and 3% undecided.  If Obama wins 73% or higher of the Latino vote, it would eclipse the 72% won by Bill Clinton in his landslide re-election in 1996, and mark the highest total ever for a Democratic presidential candidate.

“With 11 weeks of tracking, we are headed towards a record level of Latino votes for a Democratic presidential candidate,” said Matt Barreto, principal investigator for Latino Decisions. “If Latinos turnout at the high rates we are expecting, they could deliver Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Virginia to Obama.”

Overall, Latino voters had a positive view of Democrats and when asked who they would vote for in the upcoming U.S. House of Representatives election, 68% had already voted or were certain they would vote for Democrats, and another 4% saying they lean towards Democrats in the Congressional vote.

“Voter enthusiasm in this election has increased significantly which is extremely encouraging” said Monica Lozano, CEO of impreMedia. “All indications are that Latinos are motivated and will turn out in record numbers proving once again that this electorate is critical for any national candidate to win.”

Latino Decisions weekly tracking poll: Latinos are more enthusiastic and more likely to vote

Posted by AzblueMeanie:

The latest Latino Decisions weekly tracking poll finds 8 percent of Latinos have already voted early, enthusiasm up again in final week:

The latest impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll shows that Latinos are more enthusiastic and more likely to vote than ten weeks ago when the initial poll was fielded.  Forty-five percent of Latino voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 compared to 2008.  That number is up from 37% from ten weeks ago when the initial impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll was fielded.  Furthermore, 87% of Latino voters say they are almost certain they will vote on November 6^th, which includes 8% of Latino voters have already voted.  In 2008, 84% of Latino registered voters cast a ballot according to Census statistics.

* * *

Overall, Obama has the support of 73% of all Latino registered voters, compared to 21% who favor Romney.  The 52-point gap matches the largest gap among Latinos this year, also found in the October 1 tracking poll.

For the ten weeks the impreMedia-Latino Decisions poll has been taken the most important issue for Latinos consistently has been the economy and the latest release revealed that Romney and the Republican party have been unable to convince Latino voters that they will be better at improving the it.  Seventy-three percent of Latino voters trust Obama and the Democrats to make the right decisions to improve the economy compared to only 18% that trust Romney and the Republicans.

“The poll shows that this year we can anticipate record participation among Latino voters,” said Monica Lozano, CEO of impreMedia “However, Latinos are also realistic about what it will take to make real progress on the issues they care about, especially given the lack of cooperation  among our elected representatives in Congress.”

Over the past weeks the number of Latinos who say they are certain to vote has gone from 81% to 84% and now 87%.  At the same time, the percent who say they are more enthusiastic in 2012 has grown from 36% to 40% and now 45%. The percent who describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” has gone from 51% to 56% to 59% in the last three weeks.

* * *

Next Monday, November 5, impreMedia and Latino Decisions will release the final weekly tracking poll, including in-depth analysis of likely voters, Latinos in battleground states, and the final LD Vote Predict model by statistician Dr. Justin Gross.

Some words of wisdom about presidential polling

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Polls are for media consumption to fill hours and hours of air time and columns and columns in newspapers (and pixels online) with idle speculation and conjecture by media villagers and Beltway bloviators about the supposed state of the "horse race." Almost none of them have any background in political science or statistics, nor do they have the slightest clue what the hell they are talking about. They are into "infotainment."

When I was studying political science a half of a lifetime ago and working on Democratic campaigns, a wise Democratic campaign operative told me "Kid, don't even bother looking at polls until the end of September. Whoever is ahead at the end of September is going to win on election day." (He was talking about presidential polling).

And sure enough, these words of wisdom have held true, with two notable exceptions, since 1936. Nate Silver wrote about this awhile back in his FiveThirtyEight column in late September. The Statistical State of the Presidential Race - NYTimes.com:

What did the polling look like at this stage in past elections, and how did it compare against the actual results?

Our polling database contains surveys going back to 1936. The data is quite thin (essentially just the Gallup national poll and nothing else) through about 1968, but it’s nevertheless worth a look.

In the table below, I’ve averaged the polls that were conducted 40 to 50 days before the election in each year — the time period that we find ourselves in now. (In years when there were no polls in this precise time window, I used the nearest available survey.)

The table considers the race from the standpoint of the incumbent party (designated with the color purple) and the challenging party (wearing the orange jerseys), without worrying about whether they were Democrats or Republicans. Mr. Obama’s position, for instance, is probably more analogous to that of the Republican incumbent George W. Bush in 2004 than it is to the candidate from his own party that year, John Kerry.

This is an awful lot of data, but there are several reasonably clear themes.

Latino Decisions Tracking Poll: Latino voters highly engaged

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

In this week's Latino Decisions Tracking Poll, Latino voters highly engaged in presidential election, support for Obama rises:

The impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll latest results reveal a high level of interest and engagement by Latino voters in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. [ Full wave 9 results here ]

More than three-fourths of all respondents said they have talked with friends or family members about candidates, issues or other election topics in the last few months and 45% have actively tried to persuade friends or family on their election decision. According to the 2008 American National Election study, 45% of all voters said they tried to influence how others voters, suggesting on this measure Latinos are as engaged in 2012 as all voters were in 2008.  When asked if they had tried to help people register or volunteered for any campaign or voter outreach effort 14% of all Latino voters said yes. 

* * *

Those who said they were very enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming elections climbed from 51% last week to 56% this.

“This week’s survey indicates that Latino voters are one of the most highly engaged groups in the election,” said Monica Lozano, CEO of impreMedia. “This has implications for both candidates, but is an especially positive force for President Obama who is still highly favored by Latinos.”

Among Latinos, those age 45-65 years old reported the highest level of electoral engagement on every dimension.   For example, within this age group 89% are certain to vote, and 68% say they are very enthusiastic. 59% say they have tried to persuade people on political issues, and 28% have volunteered for a campaign or worked on voter registration.

After a slight decline in last week’s poll, Obama’s support is back up near his previous high 3 weeks ago. When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, a combined 71% of respondents were certain or likely to vote for Obama, compared to 67% last week and 72% two weeks ago. A combined 20% were certain or likely to vote for Romney, compared to 23% last week and 20% two weeks ago.

* * *

[A] very important footnote to the national polls – if they are not accurately polling and counting Latino voters which will comprise 10% of all voters, they may be overstating Romney’s numbers by 2 or 3 points.

“Obama may have lost some ground nationally,” said Monica Lozano, of impreMedia. “But our 9 weeks of polling indicate he has retained consistent support from Latino voters, and they are likely to be a decisive factor in his re-election effort.”

Latino voters may also be decisive in Arizona congressional races and state legislative races. GOTV!

Dr. Richard Carmona leads by four points in new poll

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Politicos pooh-poohed last week's Rocky Mountain Poll (Behavioral Research Center .pdf) showing Dr. Richard Carmona up by four points over Rep. Jeff Flake. I have heard through channels that Republicans have an internal poll showing Carmona up by five points over Flake -- yeah, they won't be releasing their poll.

The Carmona campaign today released a poll that it commissioned from Anzalone Liszt Research showing Carmona up by four points over Flake, which is in line with these other polls. Here is the press release from the Dr. Richard Carmona for U.S. Senate campaign:

New poll shows Carmona leading Flake
Latest polling gives Carmona four-point advantage over Flake  

Rich Carmona leads twelve-year Congressman Jeff Flake by four points, 45-41 percent, according to a new Anzalone Liszt Research poll commisioned by the Carmona campaign. Libertarian candidate Marc Victor holds 5 percent among likely voters. 

"This poll confirms other recent polling that has all shown Rich Carmona tied or leading this race," said Carmona for Arizona communications director Andy Barr. "This poll also shows that Congressman Jeff Flake's sleazy tactics are backfiring, as the 12-year incumbent Congressman and former lobbyist continues to trail dramatically with independent voters." 

The Special Forces veteran, trauma surgeon, Pima County Deputy Sheriff and 17th Surgeon General of the United States gained a net 5-point shift in the last two weeks from the Anzolone Liszt Research poll survey, leading in Maricopa County at 45-42 percent. Carmona continues to lead among registered Independents at 47-33 percent, and increases his crossover appeal by four points with 18 percent of Republicans polled saying they would vote for Carmona.

Carmona’s personal popularity holds strong with 42 percent having a favorable view, and 34 percent casting an unfavorable one. Flake's rating is mixed as both his favorable and unfavorable ratings stand at 41 percent overall. Flake's numbers are worse among independents and Hispanics, with 43 and 49 having an unfavorable view of the Congressman.

Additionally, Flake's negative attacks are backfiring. Among those familiar with his recent ads, nearly 60 percent say Flake's maneuvers are "dirty politics," and only 23 percent found the attacks believable. 

Methodology: Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=800 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 voters in Arizona. Interviews were conducted between October 17-21, 2012 and included bilingual interviews among Hispanic voters, and 20% of all interviews conducted via cell phone. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is +/- 3.5% with a 95% confidence level. 

###

Rocky Mountain poll: Obama leads by two points in Arizona

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

President Barack Obama stands at 44% and GOP challenger Mitt Romney has 42% in the Rocky Mountain poll released Saturday. The margin is within the poll's sampling error. Poll: Presidential race close in Arizona (CNN):

With 11 electoral votes, the state has been considered to be leaning in Romney's favor.

The state's two most populous counties, Maricopa and Pima, came out in support of Obama, while Romney has a lead in the rural counties. Men are evenly split between the two candidates, and the difference between the candidates among women is only three points.

Obama is the heavy favorite among the state's Latinos, who split for him 77% to Romney's 10%.

* * *

The race between Democrat Richard Carmona and six-term GOP Rep. Jeff Flake to replace retiring Sen. John Kyl is also close, with likely voters split 44% to 40%. Former President Clinton lent some star power to the race when he campaigned for Carmona this past week.

The Rocky Mountain poll included 523 registered voters reached by phone between October 4 and 10, entirely after the first presidential debate. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 points.

Carmona up by 4 over Flake in new poll

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

POLITICO reports today, Dem poll: Carmona up 4 over Flake:

POLITICO's Scott Wong reports:

An internal poll for Senate Democrats shows former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona leading Republican Rep. Jeff Flake by 4 percentage points – a figure consistent with recent polling that has the candidates locked in a dead heat.

The poll results, outlined in a memo obtained by POLITICO on Wednesday, shows Carmona with a 47 percent to 43 percent advantage over Flake. That falls within the +/- 4 percent margin of error. The poll, conducted by Harstad Strategic Research Inc. for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, surveyed 602 likely Arizona voters from Sunday to Tuesday through live phone calls.

Democrats noted that of the voters surveyed, 39 percent identified themselves as Republican and 30 percent as Democrat, a more Republican sample than the state’s current voter registration.  Carmona also led among registered independents 51 percent to 38 percent.

The poll was released on a crucial day in the Arizona Senate race. Carmona and Flake are sitting down at 4 p.m. ET with the editorial board of the Arizona Republic, the state’s largest newspaper. The event will be streamed live here. The candidates then will meet tonight in their first televised debate [Horizon Eight (PBS) at 5:00 p.m. AZ Time]. Then, former President Bill Clinton stumps with Carmona at Arizona State University. Early voting starts Thursday.

Flake, a six-term congressman, is still favored to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Jon Kyl in the red state. But Paul Harstad and Mike Kulisheck, partners with Colorado-based Harstad, wrote that Carmona has room to grow considering he is still introducing himself to voters.

“With just four weeks before Election Day and early voting about to start, Carmona’s momentum and room for growth – along with voters’ increasing doubts about Flake’s record – bode well for an upset in Arizona’s Senate election this November,” they wrote.

Latino Decisions Tracking Poll: Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

This weekly Latino Decisions Tracking Poll has President Obama expanding his lead to 80% of poll respondents. The new poll out Wednesday suggests his support among the group is even larger in Arizona:

Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming

New polling data out of Arizona released by America’s Voice and Latino Decisions suggests Arizona may be much closer than the polling averages indicate.  A full 80% of Latinos say they plan to vote for Obama, compared to just 14% for Romney, and Latino enthusiasm is much, much higher in Arizona than the national average.  In Latino Decisions national tracking poll 34% of Latinos say they are more excited about voting in 2012 while 36% say they were more excited back in 2008.  In Arizona 60% are more enthusiastic in 2012 compared to just 16% who were more enthused in 2008.

* * *

If Latino turnout is high in Arizona this year, it will be the Nevada of 2012 that takes the mainstream media by surprise.

Full results of the Arizona Latino poll are posted here.  Among the poll highlights:

Arizona Latinos Favor Democrats by Wide Margins

• In the presidential race, 80% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for President Obama, while 14% said they will vote for Romney and 6% are undecided. The largest vote share for Obama of any state.
• In the U.S. Senate race, 75% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for Richard Carmona (D), while 12% said they will vote for Rep. Jeff Flake (R) and 13% are undecided.
• In addition, 69% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their U.S. House race, while 14% will vote Republican and another 14% are undecided.

Candidates’ Immigration Positions Matter to Arizona Latinos

• 68% of respondents said that immigration was “the most important issue” or “one of the most important issues” in their voting decisions this year.
• After hearing about President Obama’s deferred action policy, 64% of respondents said that they were “more enthusiastic” about voting for Obama and 5% said that they were “less enthusiastic.” Meanwhile, after hearing about Mitt Romney’s statements on “self-deportation” and his support for Arizona’s SB 1070, 8% of respondents said that they were “more enthusiastic” about Romney and 67% of respondents said that they were “less enthusiastic.”
• Upon learning of Jeff Flake’s vote against the DREAM Act in 2010 and his support for increasing “border security instead of trying to stop the Arizona immigration law,” 59% of respondents said that they were “less enthusiastic” about Flake, while 8% said they were “more enthusiastic” about him.
• After hearing about Richard Carmona’s support for the DREAM Act and his praise of the Obama administration’s deferred action policy, 73% of respondents said that they felt “more enthusiastic” about Carmona, while only 5% said that they felt “less enthusiastic.”

About that McSally Push Poll

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The Martha McSally CD2 campaign has released an internal poll for the campaign conducted by Wes Anderson of OnMessage Inc. which claims she is tied with Rep. Ron Barber.

Barber: 47.3 percent   McSally: 47.3 percent   Undecided: 5.2 percent.

The push poll was conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 1. The live telephone interview survey polled 400 likely general election voters with a margin of error of 4.9 points.

I say push poll because OnMessage Inc. has conducted illegal push polling in the past for which it has had to pay a fine in settlement in New Hampshire. OnMessage, Inc. to Pay $15,000 Under Consent Agreement For Push Polling Complaint:

Attorney General Michael Delaney announced today his Office has reached a settlement agreement with OnMessage, Inc. ("OnMessage") following complaints that the company was engaged in push polling in a manner that violated New Hampshire's push polling law. Under the terms of the Consent Agreement, OnMessage will pay the State $15,000 to settle the dispute.

The State has alleged that OnMessage was hired by the 2010 Guinta for Congress campaign and wrote the push poll script used in the 400 calls that were made to New Hampshire residents in September 2010.

Guinta for Congress would be Republican Frank Guinta (R-NH). Frank Guinta (R-NH) | CREW's Most Corrupt Members of Congress: Beginning in 2009, Rep. Guinta made several shady loans to his campaign committee, claiming the money was his own despite an income that seemed to preclude that possibility.

Nice friends you got there, Martha. I don't give much credibility to this poll.

Public Policy Polling: Carmona leads by two points

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

PPP's newest poll of the Arizona Senate race finds Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican Jeff Flake by 45-43. Carmona up 2, Romney by 9 in Arizona - Public Policy Polling:

That represents a small shift in Carmona's direction since our last poll of the state three weeks ago, which had found Flake ahead by just a 44-43 margin.

There's two things you have to do to win as a Democrat in a pretty Republican leaning state like Arizona: win independents and a get a healthy amount of crossover support from GOP voters. Right now Carmona's doing both of those things. He has a 52/37 advantage over Flake with independents. And he's winning over 14% of Republicans while losing just 7% of Democrats. Carmona's net favorability is a +8 spread (35/27), while Flake's is -1 at 40/41.

There are still reasons to think this race could shift back in Flake's favor. The 12% of voters who are undecided prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama for President by a 58/37 margin, so there's reason to think they might end up breaking toward Flake in the end. Also Arizona voters would generally prefer that Republicans be in control of the Senate rather than the Democrats by a 50/40 spread. That Carmona leads anyway is a function of him being superior to Flake as a candidate, but that still leaves open the possibility that if Republicans can effectively nationalize the election Flake's standing will improve.

* * *

Arizona may go Democratic in the Presidential race sometime but it doesn't appear likely to be this year. We find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 53-44 in the state. This is a rare state where a majority of voters actually see Romney favorably. 54% have a positive opinion of him to 42% with a negative one. And Obama's quite unpopular with just 40% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove.

Full results here.

The 'less than do nothing' Tea-Publican Congress: kick em' all out!

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The "less than do nothing" Tea-Publican Congress is the "Worst. Congress. Ever." Congress' Approval Poised to Be Lowest in an Election Year (September 2012):

Thirteen percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest Gallup has measured this late in an election year. The prior lows were 18% in 1992, 2008, and 2010.

In the Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll released on Tuesday, WSJ/NBC Poll: Majority favor one party control:

A majority of voters want one party to control Congress and the White House next year, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll, a remarkable opinion shift that suggests deep frustration with Washington gridlock.

The Journal survey of registered voters, to be released in full at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday on WSJ.com, found 52% want effectively one party to rule Washington, with 39% wanting a divided government. It’s the first time a majority of voters supported the idea in the Journal poll going back to the mid-1980s.

The Republican brand has taken a severe hit thanks to the radical extremism of the Tea Party, according to the new ABC News/Washington Post polls. More voters are self-identifying as Democratic voters in polls. Democrats have an advantage in generic congressional polling (h/t Daily Kos).

Gee, I can't imagine why the public is upset with the obstructionist Tea-Publicans blocking every job creation bill with a record number of senate filibusters and actively sabotaging the economy with their failed "austerity" economic measures for partisan political posturing. This Tea-Publican Congress got elected on the fraudulent promise of "Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!" in 2010, yet they have done nothing to create jobs. Rather the religious right has passed dozens of bills placing new restrictions on abortion and access to contraception, and voting 33 times to repeal "ObamaCare." Mr. Boehner, where are the jobs?

As I have said before, "Not One Tea-Publican in 2012" -- kick em' all out! Give President Obama a Democratic Senate and Congress.

Latino Decisions Tracking Poll: Obama leads 73 - 21 percent

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

In the latest weekly Latino Decisions Tracking Poll, President Obama and Democrats have widened their lead among Latino voters:

[T]he over national polling data shows the strongest week to date for President Obama and the Democrats, with noticeable gains over last week’s poll. [Full wave 6 results here | impreMedia Voto2012 ]

Fifty-one percent of Latino voters in ten battleground states said they trust Obama and the Democrats more to make the right decisions and improve economic conditions, compared to 27% for Romney and Republicans. When combined with voters in non-battleground states, the numbers jumped to 72% and 20% respectively, a significant increase from 4 weeks ago when overall 59% said they trusted Obama and Democrats more versus 30% for Romney and Republicans to fix the economy.

“Beyond immigration, which continues to be a very important issue, Obama has now opened up a very large lead on trust to rebuild the economy among Latinos,” said Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions.  “While Republicans had hoped the weak economy would provide an opening to win over Latinos, almost three-fourths of Latinos say they have more confidence in Obama to fix the economy.  Romney’s infamous comments about the ’47 percent’ are clearly hurting him among Latinos.  He appears out of touch with the average working class family,” added Barreto.

GOP poll shows Arizona is a close race for U.S. Senate and President

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Arizona's shadow governor, Chuch Coughlin and his Highground Inc. political consulting firm, hired GOP pollster Moore Information to poll the senate and presidential races in Arizona. It looks like Arizona is a close race and the Democrats have the momentum according to the pollster and Arizona's shadow governor. GOP poll: Ariz. Democrats gaining in Presidential and Senate races:

Chuck Coughlin's political consulting firm HighGround, Inc. released a new poll showing Democrats are making a late charge in presidential and senate races. 

According to the survey, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is holding a slim lead over Democratic president Barack Obama. [The new poll poll shows Romney leading Obama 46 percent to 42 percent.]

At the same time, the survey shows Democratic Senate candidate Richard Carmona within a few points of his Republican rival, Congressman Jeff Flake. [The new poll shows Flake leading Carmona 43 percent to 40 percent.] 

The results in both races were within the margin of error, meaning it's a dead-heat heading into the last six weeks of the campaign.

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Coughlin, who has a reputation as a fierce Republican political consultant, said he released the poll because he wanted voters to have a fair assessment of where the state stands right now.

"This is not going to be a landslide election one way or the other,' Coughlin said. 

* * *

Coughlin said the results of his latest survey mean these races will come down to who "can grab the momentum in the next two weeks and who can close effectively."

In the Senate race, Coughlin said it’s Carmona who has the momentum on his side. But, he warned, that can change quickly, especially for a first time candidate like Carmona. 

Recent polls show Carmona gaining on Flake appear to back up Coughlin's claims.

* * *

That same trend appears to be happening in the presidential race.

Bonus poll number from this poll: Proposition 121, the Top Two Primary ("Jungle Primary") is losing badly, with the no vote at 53%, and the yes vote at a dismal 37%.

UPDATE: HuffPo's Howard Fineman agrees Arizona's senate race is a tossup. Huffington Post: A GOP Senate Is Slip-Sliding Away: Countdown Day 40: "[T]he Carmona-Flake race is considered a tossup, and President Barack Obama, though still behind, is slowly but noticeably gaining ground."

Two new polls show Arizona U.S. Senate race is a dead heat

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The GOP "house effect" pollster Rasmussen Reports is out with a new poll today, Arizona Senate - Rasmussen Reports™: 

The latest statewide telephone survey of Likely Arizona Voters shows Republican Congressman Jeff Flake with 47% of the vote to Democrat Richard Carmona’s 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted on September 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percent.

Rasmussen Reports has consistently demonstrated a GOP "house effect" and GOP bias in past elections. Nate Silver's analysis of all pollsters after the 2010 election found that Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com:

It did not make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were commissioned for Fox News by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News [Pulse Opinion Research] had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.

In short, the alleged six point Flake lead is entirely Rasmussen "house effect" and likely a statistical tie.

A second poll released today was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research for the Carmona campaign and is also statistical tie. Press release from the Carmona for U.S. Senate campaign:

New poll shows Arizona U.S. Senate race tied
Anzalone Liszt Research poll shows growth potential for Carmona, ceiling for Flake

A new poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research shows Dr. Richard Carmona in a statistical tie with less than 6 weeks until Election Day. The poll, commissioned by the Carmona campaign, demonstrates Dr. Carmona still has significant growth potential, while Congressman Jeff Flake has only lukewarm support.

Currently, 44 percent support Flake, 43 percent choose Carmona and 3 percent back Libertarian Marc Victor. You can view the Anzalone Liszt Research memo on the poll and methodology here. 

GOP-friendly Purple Strategies Poll: Arizona presidential race down to 3 points

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

OK, this may be the only time you will ever see me cite a Purple Strategies Poll (crap), but I thought I would give the Obama camp something to cheer about in Arizona, and maybe attract the attention of the Obama campaign as a possible swing state -- one of the goals of team Obama this year. Daily Kos: AZ in play says Purple Strategies Polls & More:

[Purple Strategies] is a consulting group headed by Lannie Davis and Michael Steele ........ ugh, you say!   Yes, these guys are unctious cretins but they make there money, not by being right, but by convincing swing-district Ds and Rs that they can cobble a winning "third way" campaign.   Their polls have consistantly been R leaning this season but that's not totally bad:  if an umpire is always calling the outside strike, you can figure out the strike zone.   Thus before reading the polls I figured they would have about a 2% slice from the norm and I was proven correct.   The news is solid, RINO/DINO confirmation that the Preznit is in good shape.

* * *

NOTE:  I'm showing Purple Strategies numbers, not including what I see as a 2 pt. Red handicap.

Leading off with the biggie:

Arizona:         Romney 48, Obama 45    Romney +3
* Even if you don't factor in a house effect, O-3 in AZ would still be HUGE news!   Romney can't afford to defend states like AZ.

Subtract the 2 point red handicap, and it is essentially tied.

I would like to see Public Policy Polling, a legitimate pollster, come in and do a post-Romney "47 %" poll in Arizona to test its last pre-conventions poll that had Romney safely ahead in Arizona.

UPDATE: (The PS poll's Arizona results are spread throughout the full survey  report. Check pages 1, 7, 10, 11, 15, 16.)

GOP-friendly pollster has Carmona leading Flake by five points

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

This poll was released under condition the pollster not be identified, which raises my suspicion, but in any event azfamily.com (TV 3) in Phoenix reports a GOP-friendly pollster has released a poll showing Dr. Richard Carmona leading Rep. Jeff Flake by five points for the U.S. Senate seat. Poll: Carmona leading Flake:

The results of a surprising new poll in the U.S. Senate race were released Wednesday showing Democrat Richard Carmona beating his Republican rival.

The survey, which was conducted by a GOP-friendly firm, shows Carmona holding a 5-point edge over Jeff Flake.

* * *

Officials with Flake's campaign declined to comment on the poll. But Flake's spokesman, Andrew Wilder, said, "We've always known this race is going to be a close one. That's why Jeff Flake is working hard to gain the trust of voters.

But a spokesman for Carmona's camp said they were pleased.

"We don't put too much weight in any poll, but this confirms what our campaign has been saying all along," said spokesman Andy Barr. "Dr. Carmona is a unique candidate with a background that appeals to Independents, Republicans, and Democrats."

Specifically, the numbers show Carmona with 44 percent and Flake with 39. But 16 percent of those questioned said they were undecided.

Of the 620 voters questioned, 37 percent were Republican, 34 percent were Democrat, and 29 percent were independent. The poll had a margin of error of 4 points.

The authors of the poll did not want to be identified because they were not authorized to release the details.

This report raises another point that I have noticed in tracking outside money in this race:

Another surprising element in the race is the lack of money coming from outside spending groups.

During the primary, the powerful Republican group, Club for Growth, spent more than $1 million helping Flake.

So far the group has spent nothing on the race. The only money from outside groups came from conservative Freedomworks for America. The organization tossed in about $85,000 to help Flake.

If Carmona is leading, where is the DSCC and Democratic PACs and Super PACs dropping money into Arizona to win a critical Senate seat? Time to step up and play to win this seat!

Latino Decisions Tracking Poll: Obama advantage grows

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

"Mr. Self-deport," Willard "Mittens" Romney, is giving a speech to the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in Los Angeles on Monday. Yeah, good luck with that.

The latest numbers from the tracking poll by Latino Decisions this morning shows Obama's advantage is growing:

With seven weeks until the election Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s potential gender gap with women faces a new hurdle in the Latino community, as reported today by Pilar Marrero.  According to the fourth week of the impreMedia/Latino Decisions tracking poll Latina voters plan to vote for President Obama by a margin of 74% to 21% for Romney – a 53 point gap.  Among Latino men, 61% plan to vote for Obama and 32% for Romney.  The September 17 polling data suggest the President continues to solidify his lead among Latinos, and there are no signs of cracks in the Obama coalition among Latino voters. Overall Obama holds 68% of the Latino vote to 26% for Romney, erasing the small bump Romney received in the September 3 (week 2) poll release following the RNC convention. [Full Week 4 results by gender here]

But it is among Latina voters that Romney and the Republican party fare the worst. The impreMedia/Latino Decisions tracking poll data show very clearly that Hispanic women are very opposed to Mitt Romney and the Republican party image right now. Romney’s favorability is 27% among Latino men and just 22% among Latinas, while Republicans in Congress are seen favorably by 29% of men, but just 20% of women in the Latino community. Looking towards the vote in the U.S. House, 68% of Latinas say they will vote Democrat compared to 59% of Latino men.

When you have Kris Kobach, one of the drafters of SB 1070, as your anti-immigrant adviser to your campaign, this is what can happen. Romney very well could nationalize the "Pete Wilson post-Prop. 187 effect in California" among Latino voters for the GOP this year, and for years to come.