Blog For Arizona

The problematic disintegration of Syria

By Karl Reiner

In 1970, Gen. Hafiz al-Assad, a member of the minority Alawite sect, took power in Syria following a long period of political instability. Assad's secular Bath Party portrayed itself as an upholder of Arab nationalism willing to defend the nation and its minorities against foreign threats and Islamic fundamentalism. Remarkably, he was able to hold on to the presidency for 30 years and then transfer power to his son, Bashar.

Under Hafiz al-Assad, the Alawites got an opportunity to overcome their second-class status but not necessarily to become wealthy. Repression was always one of Assad's tools. In February 1982, he was faced with an armed Islamist uprising. The general/president decided to make an example of the city of Hama where the rebellion was based. Estimates put the death toll resulting from the devastating attack on the city at between 10,000 and 30,000.

Wartime events had an influence on Arizona’s geographic shape

By Karl Reiner

Early in the Civil War, Gen. Joseph Johnston and his generals in Northern Virginia quarreled with Confederate President Davis in Richmond over the practicality of the president's defensive war policy. While advocating a defensive posture in Northern Virginia, Davis was also eager to extend Confederate power as far as the Pacific. Taking control of California's lucrative gold fields would provide a source of revenue for the haughty, new Confederacy. Any westward expansion of slavery would also be strongly supported by the South's politically powerful large plantation owners.

For years, variations of the expansionist dream of slave owners had been a mainstay of dinner conversations in the South's finest plantations. The objective was to create a confederation in the Western Hemisphere which would include the Southern Slave States, the territories of the southwest United States, possibly Cuba, parts of Central America and northern Mexico. Although it is now largely forgotten, the hazy notion was a subtle part of the ideology driving many of the promoters of secession. The dream held out a promise of an empire based on cotton production and slavery. It offered a sparkling alternative to the fraying relationship the South had in the Union. It was a belief held by many of the South's leaders despite the fact that the institution of slavery was being dismantled in other parts of the world.

Benghazi is spelled IOKIYAR

Crossposted from DemocraticDiva.com

 

To be a liberal in America is to be acutely aware of the gaping double standard that exists with regard to the expectations placed on you versus those put on conservatives. The disparity is so enormous that I doubt even the most dimwitted “both sides do it!” centrist pundits can deny it to themselves. Liberals are expected to argue politely and rationally, have our facts perfectly in order, and maintain a calm and pleasant demeanor at all times no matter what mendacious, hateful nonsense the other side is flinging at us. No concomitant expectation exists for conservatives. They are free to behave as poorly as they want and take whatever liberties with the truth they’d like, knowing that “both sides” will be blamed, which lets conservatives escape accountability and encourages them to see how much farther they can push the envelope.

Iran and a host of intertwined problems

By Karl Reiner

On January 12, the P5+1 (the UN Security Council's five permanent members plus Germany) and Iran reached agreement on a joint plan to freeze Iran's nuclear program for six months. The next more difficult step will be to negotiate a long-term agreement. Given the differences remaining between the positions of the parties, many skeptics don't think a final deal can be reached. Other analysts think the effort will

falter because Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is not willing to give up the option to acquire nuclear weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu doesn't like any of it. He sees the talks as a major blunder, an Iranian stall to gain extra time.

There is growing support in Congress for placing additional sanctions on Iran. There are serious doubts about what Iranian President Rouhani can actually deliver. Not everyone believes he has a real mandate for change. There is a suspicion that he is the friendly face sent to shield the stall tactics of Iran's supreme leader. The move in the Senate to impose new sanctions does make President Obama look feeble. With Congress smugly failing to acknowledge the agreements that have been reached so far, President Obama is seen by Iran's hardliners as not being in control of his foreign policy. In this tension filled environment, Iran's policy of non-recognition and hostility toward Israel doesn't help matters.

Help Britt Farbo Go To DC

By Tom Prezelski

Re-posted from Rum, Romanism and Rebellion

Folks who have been active in Baja Arizona Democratic politics for a while probably remember Britt Farbo, the feisty badass from the Sulphur Springs Valley who made her mark on the Young Democrats back in the aughts. Since then, she has led a wandering life of adventure, including a stint in DC with EMILY’s List, studies in Norway, and work with an NGO in Afghanistan. Currently, she is doing NGO work for the advancement of women in Cambodia and is working on a degree in Phnom Pen.

Farbo is also active as an officer with Democrats Abroad, the arm of the Democratic Party that represents expatriate Democrats around the world. She is raising money so she can go to Washington DC to represent the Asia-Pacific Region in her capacity as a Regional Vice Chair at Democrats Abroad’s 50th Anniversary meeting at the end of February. In Farbo’s words:

The troubling trend in Afghanistan

By Karl Reiner

Since 2002, the U.S. has spent $100 billion on nonmilitary aid in Afghanistan, a country considered by many analysts to be the most corrupt nation on earth. Despite the massive amount of aid, Afghan state institutions remain fragile and ineffectual, they do not provide good governance, deliver basic services or provide security. The country ranks near the bottom for GDP per capita income, life expectancy and electricity usage. Although more roads and schools have been built, the Taliban destroys around 100 schools per year. With a population of approximately 30 million, Afghanistan has an unemployment rate of 35%, it is the world's largest producer of opium.

Because Afghan government services are mostly imperceptible in the countryside, Afghanistan is becoming a defining study on how not to give aid. A sizeable part of the aid appears to have been wasted or siphoned off. Planning is said to be poor. The dangerous security situation makes contract oversight difficult allowing cunning contractors and their benefactors to take advantage of the chancy situation. Although the U.S. has spent an additional $51 billion to train the Afghan military since 2002, the local military and police forces are still having difficulty operating on their own. The literacy rate in the Afghan military is around 14%. This impediment makes it tough to perform tasks such as maintaining equipment, reading maps, providing logistics, communications, medical and intelligence support.

Israel: Keep Questioning The Premises

Posted by Bob Lord

This may be a long one. I recently finished two lengthy books on Israel-Palestine, My Promised Land: The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel, by Ari Shavit, and Goliath: Life and Loathing in Greater Israel, by Max Blumenthal. In addition, I had an interesting exchange of emails with a Jewish friend who is a self-proclaimed moderate.

I've posted previously on Goliath. It's a masterpiece. Is it one-sided? Absolutely, as it was intended to be. But the case it makes is compelling. Many in the "Israel can do no wrong" community are demonizing Blumenthal, but the great majority have not read the book. Nor will they. As Larry Gross of Truthdig so aptly noted, Goliath contains many inconvenient truths. Actually, the better term may be "uncomfortable truths." 

My "moderate" friend provides a great example on that front. He'd read a negative review of Goliath and emailed it to me for my thoughts. I emailed back Larry Gross' review, and suggested that he should have the intellectual curiosity to read Goliath himself and form his own conclusions. His response was that he didn't have time to read many books, so he only could read one on Israel-Palestine, and that would be Shavit's My Promised Land, because it was reported to be balanced. He didn't take kindly to my teasing him about his fearing inconvenient truths, but his explanation regarding his limited capacity to read brought to mind that old expression, "the lady doth protest too much."

More on my email exchange later, but let me turn to My Promised Land. Please join me after the jump. 

Arizona and the repercussions of SB 1070

By Karl Reiner

Passed in 2010, SB 1070 was Arizona's attempt to have local police become more involved in enforcing immigration laws. Although it added a burden on the police, the law generated a great deal of publicity regarding the state of affairs along Arizona's border. It gave fearful people something to think about, taking their minds off of the devastating effects of the Great Recession. Regrettably for Arizona, most of the publicity was highly unfavorable. As the political leadership in Phoenix flaunted its idiosyncratic bizarreness, Arizona became known as a hothouse of intolerance and/or a place where elected officials were too inept to understand the difference between federal and state policing responsibilities.

Arizona's actions antagonized the neighboring Mexican state of Sonora at the same time it brought heaps of unflattering publicity upon itself. All this was occurring at a time when federal border enforcement was on the upswing, the number of illegal borders crossers was dropping and trade with Mexico was increasing. It appeared that Arizona's goal was to freeze trade, encourage tourists to stay away and push up the unemployment rate. The effort to implement SB 1070 soon ran into legal problems as large parts of the law were swiftly negated by the courts. The legal bills mounted as flinty state officials continued to push implementation. In retrospect, the spending on SB 1070 legal fees might have been put to better use supporting the investigation of child protection cases.

The praised and disparaged North American Free Trade Agreement

By Karl Reiner

On January 1, 2014 the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) reached the age of 20. Still fairly controversial, NAFTA has turned out to be neither the economic marvel nor the calamity its supporters and critics claimed when the agreement went into force. NAFTA did do what trade agreements are supposed to do, it fostered a large increase in the level of trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. In 1993, U.S. merchandise exports to Mexico were $41.5 billion, imports totaled $39.9 billion. Trade with Canada accounted for $100.4 billion in U.S. exports and imports valued at $111.2 billion.

In 2012, the last year for which full year data are available, U.S. merchandise exports to Mexico reached $215.9 billion and imports totaled $277.5 billion. Shipments to Canada totaled $292.5 billion while U.S. imports came to $323.9 billion. Although U.S. merchandise trade ran a deficit with Canada and Mexico in 2012, the services trade sector did better. The U.S. had a surplus of $31.5 billion with Canada and $12.2 billion with Mexico. Services include such items as licensing fees, royalties, freight, legal, engineering, consulting, etc.

Jewish State? Please Explain

Posted by Bob Lord

Israel-Palestine has percolated to the surface for me. Tammy wanted to read a "balanced" book on the subject, so she purchased Ari Shavit's My Promised Land: The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel, then persuaded me to get it as well, so we could discuss. Today, I read Roger Cohen of the NYT's op-ed, My Jewish State, then turned to Truthdig and found Stanley Kutler's post, Israel Can Do No Wrong. 

Cohen and Kutler both mention Israel's demand for recognition, which has evolved from the Palestinians recognizing Israel's right to exist, to recognizing Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state. Why the change?

And what the hell does that mean? It's an easy concept to slide by most people, as we tend to connect Israel and Judaism. Even J Street, the supposedly moderate pro-Israel, pro-peace lobbying group, contends that the two-state solution is the only way Israel can have a future as both a "majority Jewish state and a Democracy." 

Does "Jewish" refer to the religion, the race, or a nationality? Whichever of those options you choose, there are logical dead ends. If the reference is to the religion, how do you square it with the fact that most Israeiis are secular and that is home to 1.6 million Palestinians? What happens if over time less than half the populace are practicing Jews? And what is the significance of being a Jewish state in this context? Do Jews have rights that others don't and, if so, can others achieve those rights through conversion? Is this the equivalent of America being a "Christian nation" and, if so, why do American Jews reject the notion of a Christian nation, yet demand Israel be a Jewish state?

Points to ponder as we glide into the New Year

By Karl Reiner

August 2014 will mark the 100th anniversary of the beginning of World War I. The war to end all wars did not end war, it was the starting point for the turmoil that led to World War II. The year 1914 began with a sense of self-assuredness and hope in a Europe where colonialism was an accepted fact of life. Peace had reigned for 40 years, communications were improving and trade was on the increase. Advances in medicine and sanitation were having an effect, living standards were on the rise. Economic ties were thought to deter conflict, Germany and the United Kingdom were each other's largest trading partners. Some observers  saw a problem, they believed the European powers were spending too much on armaments.

The European nations were also facing surges of socialism, nationalism and labor unrest intermingled with hefty doses of communism and anarchism. Although there had been limited conflicts in the Balkans, the people of Europe believed their leaders would be able to keep things under control. Germany and England were in race to build more warships. Russia, bruised from setbacks in the Balkans and the loss of the 1904-05 war with Japan, was stoking nationalism. France remained bitter and vengeful for the drubbing it had received from the Germans in 1871. Germany, unified by Bismarck, was no longer bound by his restraint. It sought empire and world respect.

The complicated transformation of the kingdom of oil

By Karl Reiner

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia occupies the largest part of the Arabian Peninsula's land mass. Approximately the size of the U.S. east of the Mississippi River, the country is predominantly uninhabited desert. Having one of the lowest rates of rainfall in the world, Saudi Arabia suffers from severe water scarcity. It also has the distinction of being the world's largest country without a permanently flowing river. As the birthplace of Islam, Saudi Arabia has two of the religion's holiest shrines in Mecca and Medina. These locations attract millions of religious travelers annually.

For centuries, nomadic, patriarchal tribes migrated through the desert lands with their animals, changing location with the season. In 1932, ibn Saud, the leader of the Al-Saud family, unified the country after a 30 year struggle. Saudi Arabia is a monarchy. Its people follow a conservative form of Sunni Islam. The nation's legal system is based on Sharia law, the king is the chief of state as well as the head of government. When oil was discovered in commercial quantities in 1938, the country began to make economic changes. After the oil price increases of the early 1970s, development took off.

The policy shift that is remaking China

By Karl Reiner

China has come a long way since Mao Zedong and the Communists came to power in 1949. China's recent successful development has not come easy, its architects had learned from watching the consequences of failing policies. After the chaos of the Great Leap Forward, Mao launched the Cultural Revolution to control the reformist tendencies he disliked. The situation spiraled out of control because the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution led to a 12% decline in industrial production, increasing illiteracy as schools were closed down and at least three million deaths.

Zhou Enlai started the process of reversing Mao's costly and failed policies. Deng Xiaoping, who had been purged twice, came to power in 1978. Deng allowed Mao-era rhetoric to continue while he ushered in more changes, the decentralization of decision making, economic reform and a focus on exports. The Chinese Communist Party's decision in 1992 to create what it called a socialist market economy, increased privatization. Deng's policies helped move China to a market economy that lifted 400 million people out of poverty.

The hopeful and problematic negotiations with Iran

By Karl Reiner

Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany reached a preliminary agreement on November 23 in Geneva. Iran will curb its nuclear program for six months in exchange for the dropping of some sanctions. Secretary of State Kerry and Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif have worked to put things on a new course, attempting to end 34 years of mutual hostility. Events have been helped along by Iran's President Rouhani, a regime insider experienced in security and diplomacy. A pragmatic conservative, he considers engagement important to the survival of the Islamic Republic. Rouhani has gained the support of the reformists who want to break Iran's isolation. With the people in charge in Washington and Tehran interested in moving forward, the talks have a chance of succeeding.

It will not be easy because Iran is an Islamic theocracy, dominated by clerics who watch over the functions of the state. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, does not necessarily agree with the reformists, but has been forced by sanctions to negotiate. Ayatollah Khamenei comes from the hardline right, all aspects of the country's ideological and political life ultimately come under his control. Rouhani, a trusted member of his inner circle, has his backing. Because Khamenei supports the negotiation effort, the response from the Revolutionary Guards and other hardline groups has been muted. The official line being coordinated by the supreme leader's office says that sanctions didn't force the talks. Iran has seen signs that the U.S. is changing its hostile policies and Iran is responding.

Israel: Keep Iran Down

Posted by Bob Lord

Pretty insightful analysis by Roger Cohen in today's NYT piece, Israel's Iran Dilemma. It's actually short enough to quote:

The United States is prepared to conceive of an Islamic Republic fully reintegrated in the community of nations, with equal rights. 

[snip]

Not Israel under Benjamin Netanyahu, who wants to keep Iran down. “Push us down, that is all I hear when I listen to Netanyahu,” one Stanford and Harvard-educated Iranian businessman told me. He has a strong belief that drawing Iran closer to the world is essential, a strong dislike of the Iranian regime, and a strong sense of outrage at Israel’s contempt for Iran’s national aspirations.

Diplomacy involves compromise; risk is inherent to it. Iran is to be tested. Nobody can know the outcome. Things may unravel but at least there is hope. Perhaps this is what is most threatening to Netanyahu. He has never been willing to test the Palestinians in a serious way — test their good faith, test ending the humiliations of the occupation, test from strength the power of justice and peace. He has preferred domination, preferred the Palestinians down and under pressure.

Obama and Kerry have invited Netanyahu to think again — and not just about Iran. Nothing, to judge by the hyperventilating Israeli rhetoric, could be more disconcerting. Nothing is more needed. Cheap allusions to 1938 are a poor template for Israel in the 21st century.

I'd go a step further.

Arizona’s muddled border relations

By Karl Reiner

Despite the sour view held by some politicians in Phoenix, not everything on the Arizona-Sonora, Mexico border is dangerous. Arizona's ports of entry process about 22 million visitors a year. They travel and spend money in Arizona. Through September 2013, U.S. merchandise exports to Mexico totaled $167.4 billion. Arizona's exporters accounted for $5.2 billion. The expansion of Mariposa port of entry at Nogales, scheduled to be completed in late spring 2014, is stimulating development in the region. The work doubling the capacity of the port at Guaymas, Sonora will benefit Arizona's economy when completed in two years. Cooperation is increasing between local officials because they realize Arizona and Sonora have intersecting economic interests.

The shrewd Texans have a broader prospective. They study the effect of border wait time on trade. Along with security, the Texas legislature has an interest in international cargo and passenger traffic trends, problems and solutions. This attitude may partly explain why the volume of Texas exports to Mexico is 14 times larger than Arizona's. While approximately 400,000 undocumented migrants live in Arizona, about 1.7 million reside in Texas. The October 2013 unemployment rate stands at 8.2% in Arizona. Although Texas appears to be swamped by undocumented people, its unemployment rate is 6.2%. The correlation between the presence of illegal migrants and unemployment may be somewhat less than we have been led to believe.

Deconstructing Propoganda in the Age of Empire

Posted by Bob Lord

Patrick Smith has a wonderfully instructive piece up at Salon, Chomsky's Right: New York Times' Latest Big Lie, showing, at the micro level, how the American public's misperceptions originate. 

Do you know why the recent talks with Iran broke down? You wouldn't if you'd relied on the NY Times' reporting.

On this one, it's all in the Times' use of quotation marks. First, some background, which Smith provides:

As all know, a deal with Iran over its nuclear program is the biggest game going these days — an historic opportunity, as previously asserted in this space. Fumble this, and the Obama administration will go down as hopelessly moronic on the foreign-relations side.

You may know, too, that a round of talks between six world powers and the Iranians just hit a pothole. It is essential to understand why.

The paradox is apparent, not real. Knowing why reveals what a nation with imperial ambitions looks like when it is nearing exhaustion and would rather decline than shape up, re-imagine itself, and take a new and constructive place in the global community. Not knowing why encourages Americans to preserve their righteous self-image even as the moths of history chew holes in it.

Best, in Washington’s view, that we do not know why talks in Geneva last weekend failed.

So, how does our supposedly progressive beacon of mainstream media handle this one?

Arizona's trade and border relationships

By Karl Reiner

In 2012, Arizona's merchandise exports to India totaled $80.7 million.  During the first half of 2013, they reached $64.8 million.  In August, Governor Brewer led a trade mission to India to promote exports, investments and develop relationships with an emerging trading partner.  Although not developing as rapidly as China, India is one of the world's expanding economies.  With a population of 1.2 billion, it has economic potential.

Exports also ship out of Arizona to countries closer to home.  For the first six months of 2013, the state sent $1.25 billion worth of goods to Canada.  During the same time period, Arizona's exports to Mexico (the state's largest export market) amounted to $3.46 billion. Tucson's exporters ship about $2.5 billion in exports to Mexico per year.

La Ironía Es Un Plato Que Se Sirve Frío

By Tom Prezelski
Re-posted from Rum, Romanism and Rebellion

For a blogger, discussing foreign affairs is strictly an academic exercise, sort of like complaining about our summer heat in Tucson. Nonetheless, sometimes, the irony of a situation is so rich that one must indulge his inner nerd and comment.

Last week, the news came that Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel García-Margallo y Marfil, using terms like "decolonization," has stated his government's support for Argentina in its never ending dispute with the United Kingdom over Las Islas Malvinas the Falkland Islands. Margallo's comments may have been an expression of Panhispanismo, a political movement which seeks to promote ties between Spain and its former colonies. More likely, they were part of an effort to secure international support in the ongoing dispute over Gibraltar, which has heated up recently.

British sovereignty over Gibraltar, as some may recall, has been contested by Spain for over three centuries, resulting in about a dozen battles and sieges, the most recent of which was the largest battle in the War of American Independence.

Struggling On Syria

Posted by Bob Lord

I'm glad it's not my decision how to handle the Syrian situation. I'd make a bad decider on this one. 

I have friends in the Syrian-American community here and have discussed the situation with them. They have family in Syria. They've lost loved ones to Assad. Make no mistake about it, Assad's pure concentrated evil. My Syrian friends are certain that the U.S. must act to avoid mass bloodshed. They may be right.

But when the drums of war start beating, I get a sick feeling. I'm about halfway through Jeremy Scahill's Dirty Wars and I just read a piece about Hans Blix's view of the situation. Political and military leaders love war, and Obama is no exception. We're now hearing it's a certainty that Assad used chemical weapons. He's clearly evil enough to do so, but why would he? Militarily, his situation is not desperate enough to call for chemical weapons and politically his use of them would be suicidal. Would he intentionally provoke U.S. involvement on the side of the rebels? 

And why is this more an Obama decision than a UN decision?

Ultimately, I don't believe we can engage on a limited basis. So American kids likely would die. I then have to ask myself if I'd be willing to risk losing one of my kids to a war in Syria, because if I'm not willing to go there, I can't expect any other parent to either. 

I guess I'm not there yet. 

Afghanistan's unsettled future

By Karl Reiner

President Obama has committed to winding down American military involvement in Afghanistan by the end of 2014.  After a dozen years of fighting extremists and fabricating a nation, the combat role is ending.  The U.S. and NATO are training the Afghan army and police to assume security duties.  As foreign troops depart, donor nations have agreed to pay $5-7 billion annually to fund Afghan security forces.

At the present time, there are approximately 100,000 foreign troops in the country.  About 66,000 are American, the remainder from NATO allies.  Due to disputes with the Karzai government regarding the status of forces agreement, there is a possibility that no troops will remain in Afghanistan after 2014.

If the stalled agreement is not signed, all foreign troops will leave. This is a problem because the Afghan forces are not capable of providing logistics, medical evacuation, intelligence or air support.  This deficiency results in a need for between 12,000 and 20,000 foreign troops to remain in Afghanistan.  About two-thirds would be American.  The agreement needs to be signed by November to allow planning for a post-2014 military presence.

It's Hard Out There For An Empire

Posted by Bob Lord

Maintaining an empire becomes damn complicated. 

A case in point: The dilemma over the American Empire's aid to Egypt. 

When Obama danced around describing the Egyptian military's actions as a coup, the effect of which would to cut off the flow of aid, I figured his motivation was to preserve the profits of military contractors whose weapons would be purchased with Egypt's aid dollars. But the contractors may just be incidental beneficiaries. Egypt's military actually has real leverage here. Egypt is one of the few countries that grants the US fly over permission immediately upon request for military aircraft and also allows us access to the Suez Canal. 

Fly over rights and access to strategic waterways are invaluable tools when you're minding an empire. 

So Obama faces a Hobson's choice. If he identifies the actions of the Egyptian military as the coup that it is, thereby cutting off aid, he could lose critical empire maintenance tools. But if he continues the aid, he creates both long-term and short-term problems. In the short-term, he makes enemies in the Muslim world, who don't appreciate much him continuing to support the murderous Egyptian military. In the long-term, if a group opposed to the Egyptian military rises to power, the current continuation of aid will prove to be a disaster.  

The thing about Hobson's choices is that you're guaranteed a bad result. With empires, that just comes with the territory, so to speak.

Has Governor Brewer moderated her view of Mexico?

By Karl Reiner

When Gov. Brewer signed SB 1070 into law in April 2010, few of Arizona's political leaders had anything good to say about Mexico.  SB 1070 provoked a conflict between federal and state enforcement responsibilities and generated numerous problematic civil rights issues.  Picking up on the negative vibrations, Mexico's border state governors refused to attend the border governor's conference if it was held in Arizona in 2010.

The publicity SB 1070 generated encumbered Arizona with an economy damaging negative reputation.  It has been estimated that the SB 1070 affair cost the state a loss of output in the range of $250 million, resulted in the loss of 2,000 jobs and was responsible for a $9 million drop in tax revenue.

Great Britain to approve same-sex marriage

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

What will all the Anglophiles in America do now? If Parliament and Her Majesty the Queen can sign off on same-sex marriage in Great Britain, what objection do these Anglophile Americans have to same-sex marriage in the "colonies" on the other side of the pond?  

The Guardian reports, Gay marriage bill expected to complete passage through House of Commons:

Legislation to introduce same-sex marriage is expected to complete its passage through the House of Commons on Tuesday, with the first weddings under the law to take place in England and Wales next summer.

Jubilant gay rights campaigners were celebrating the successful passage of the marriage (same-sex couples) bill through the House of Lords on Monday night – and vowing to take the fight for marriage equality to Scotland and Northern Ireland.

MPs will debate amendments made to the legislation in the upper house on Tuesday evening, but this is expected to be little more than a formality and is unlikely to delay its progress into law, with royal assent within the next few days.

Route I-11 could boost Pima County's economy

By Karl Reiner

Work is continuing on seaport improvements at Guaymas, Sonora.  The Mariposa port of entry in Nogales is being enlarged.  Due to the expanding trade volume, freight traffic between the U.S., Canada and Mexico is increasing.  If the proposed I-11 interstate highway (which would be part of the Canamex trade corridor) is constructed, Tucson would be nicely placed to become a regional distribution center.

The Pima County Board of Supervisors may reconsider its opposition to the highway project.  Although opposed to the I-11 concept since 2007, county supervisors are now looking at the benefits from expanding Mexican trade as well as reviewing the reasons for their opposition.  American history is replete with examples of infrastructure projects that helped develop cities. I-11 could benefit Tucson in the same way.

Trends and factors that could affect Arizona's economy

By Karl Reiner

The global consumption of energy has grown by 30% during the past 10 years.  Almost all of the increase was in the developing nations.  Due to conservation and increases in efficiency, energy demand appears to have stabilized in the developed countries. Economic growth drove the increase in usage in the developing lands.  The developing countries now consume a larger share of the global energy supply than the developed nations.

 

Iran's election and the Syrian dilemma

By Karl Reiner

Taking office in August, Hassan Rowhani becomes Iran's new president at the age of 64.  The former nuclear negotiator got over 51% of the vote in a race with five other candidates. He received 18.6 million votes. About 75% of eligible voters went to the polls.  Rowhani won because Iran's reformist groups considered him the best candidate available.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his hardliners control key aspects of Iran's political system.  Despite their efforts to put a conservative into the president's job, the race was won by the most moderate of the approved candidates.  Rowhani, a member of two of Iran's top governing bodies, is experienced in economics and social issues.  While he has an Iranian revolutionary's suspicion of the West, Rowhani does not value ideology and resistance over pragmatism and results.

Never, Mr. President?

Posted by Bob Lord

Joe Nocera's column in today's Times, Is Force-Feeding Torture?, exposes the cynical hypoccirsy of Presdent Obama's statements regarding Guantanamo and torture. 

First, Nocera leaves no room for argument in making the case that the force-feeding of prisoners at Guantanamo is torture, and illegal under international law. 

But not long ago, Al Jazeera got ahold of a 30-page document that detailed the standard operating procedures used by the military to force-feed a detainee. The document makes for gruesome reading: the detaineeshackled to a special chair (which looks like the electric chair); the head restraints if he resists; the tube pushed painfully down his nose; the half-hour or so of ingestion of nutritional supplements; the transfer of the detainee to a “dry cell,” where, if he vomits, he is strapped back into the chair until the food is digested.

Detainees are also apparently given an anti-nausea drug called Reglan, which has a horrible potential side effect if given for more than three months: a disease called tardive dyskinesia, which causes twitching and other uncontrollable movements. “This drug is very scary,” said Cori Crider, the legal director of Reprieve, a London-based group that represents more than a dozen detainees. “My fear is that it is being administered without their consent,” she added. Although the military refuses to discuss the use of Reglan — or any aspect of force-feeding — that’s a pretty safe bet.

Rutgers professor ends bid to become president of Iran

By Karl Reiner

Dr. Hooshang Amirahmadi has halted his campaign to become president of Iran.  The Guardian Council, the theocratic body that vets candidates, has announced its selections.  It has approved eight conservative men to be candidates in Iran's June 14 election.  It appears that all the moderates and reformers were disqualified by the Guardian Council. Expecting the situation, some moderate potential candidates skipped the disqualification process.  They did not make an effort to register as candidates during the registration period at the interior ministry.

700 Tucsonans March Against Monsanto

by Pamela Powers Hannley

On Saturday, May 25, an estimated 2 million marched against multinational chemical giant Monsanto for tinkering with the genes of our worldwide food supply and for trying to outright control the food supply by controlling seed sales and prosecuting private farmers for saving seeds.

Here in Tucson an estimated 700 people marched against Monsanto. A veteran of many a Tucson protest march, I’d say 700 is a highly significant and news-worthy event. Ironically (or not), this march was ignored by the local news media. A Google search for local coverage revealed that both the Arizona Daily Star andKVOA ran canned stories about the worldwide effort with no mention or photos of the Tucson march. The only mention in the Tucson Weekly was a pre-event calendar announcement posted by the organizers. (For more Tucson pictures, go here.)

Here is a Loneprotestor video of the Tucson March Against Monsanto.

Tucson March Against Monsanto

To grasp the scope of this event, check out this video with scenes from around the world.

March Against Monsanto: Photos from Around the World

Special thanks to Jennifer Randell for use of her photos and to Alison McLeod for her video.

Tucson & Worldwide: March Against Monsanto, May 25

by Pamela Powers Hannley

Citizens in Tucson-- and more than 300 other cities-- will be marching, preaching, and organizing against Monsanto and genetically modified foods this coming Saturday, May 25. More than 900 Tucsonans have RSVP'd for this event here.

Here is the information from the March Against Monsanto, Tucson Facebook page.

MORE THAN 900 MARCH AGAINST 
MONSANTO in TUCSON Arizona-May 25th
Reid Park, Festival Area – 1100 S. Randolph Way Tucson, AZ 85716

Tucson, AZ March Against Monsanto ~ Tucson, is part of a grassroots global movement. People on 6 continents, in 49 countries, in over 300 cities and in 47 states in the USA will unite to March Against Monsanto. The Tucson gathering begins with registration at 11am including a free raffle ticket for every participant, music and speakers will follow. 

The March loop starts 12pm – 1:30pm and includes a walk along the northbound path to Camino Campestre, west to Country Club, south to 22nd St., east to Lakeshore Dr. then back north to the Festival area.

Speakers include: Melissa Diane Smith-GMO Free Project of Tucson, Jared Keen-Plant-Based Nation, Cara Silverstein-ShopOrganic.com, and many more. Music: Jay Wesley Anderson from The Impending Flip, The Natives Are Restless and others. There will be many terrific raffle prizes, face painting and balloons for the children and great information available. 

We March because research studies have shown that Monsanto’s genetically-modified foods can lead to serious health conditions such as the development of cancer, tumors, infertility & birth defects. Currently GMO foods are untested by the FDA & are unlabeled in the USA. More details about Monsanto after the jump.

Iran's authoritarian streak has deep roots

By Karl Reiner

Authoritarian rulers are not uncommon to Iran.  As Iran's June presidential election nears, the Guardian Council has yet to announce the list of approved candidates.  Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wants to see a suitable conservative elected as president.  In a country facing a faltering economy, sanctions and entanglement in Syria, the Supreme Leader may face some difficulty in getting his way.

In the 1960s, the Shah of Iran wanted to turn Iran into a new Persian Empire.  He aspired to make it a major force in the Persian Gulf area.  As the British withdrew their military presence east of Suez, the Shah was ready to step in and put his plan into action.

Oil revenues allowed the Shah to make large arms purchases.  Using the Cold War to his advantage, he knew if he couldn't buy military equipment from the U.S., the Soviet Union would sell him all the arms he wanted.  Within a few short years, Iran's military was turned into one of the most technologically advanced forces in the world.

Border policy myths, realities and faulty assumptions

By Karl Reiner

Gov. Brewer recently asserted that Arizona's controversial SB 1070 served as the catalyst for the creation of the immigration legislation now in Congress.  Although much of SB 1070 was set aside by the courts, the governor believes the law, costly legal fights and publicity helped start the momentum that led to the current bipartisan immigration proposal.

The governor has a point because the SB 1070 effort was not a low cost affair.  The publicity it generated saddled Arizona with a mostly negative reputation.  In far away Washington, Congress would have been aware of the SB 1070 tempest.  It could have encouraged senators to consider moving on immigration legislation.  

Sanctions, resistance and a campaign trip to Iran

By Karl Reiner

Economic sanctions were first imposed on Iran by President Carter in response to the hostage crisis.  They are currently imposed by the UN, U.S. and EU to prod Iran into negotiating the nuclear issue.  The goal is to make life difficult for the population. It is hoped that the economic squeeze will create enough popular pressure to force the Iranian government to agree to a nuclear deal.

Sanctions have delayed Israeli military action. At the UN, they have helped maintain unity between the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany.  The combination of Iranian mismanagement and sanctions are slowing the Iranian economy.  In 2011, Iran produced 3.6 million barrels of oil per day. Oil provides the government over 50% of its income.  Its output has been depressed by 25%.  Iran's GDP has slipped by 8%, inflation has climbed to 10%, and unemployment stands at 20%.

$15 Per Hour: It's Australian For Minimum Wage, Mate

Posted by Bob Lord

After spending a week in Melbourne, Australia visiting our daughter and son-in-law, I have to reconsider my views about wealth and income inequality. NOT  

Want a job paying $15 per hour? Just move to Australia and work for the minimum wage. 

Yes, the cost of living there is a bit higher than in America, but Australia employs a concept that's a bit foreign to Americans. Every job pays a living wage. Imagine that? Taxes are a bit higher in Australia, and CEOs make a good bit less. So, life isn't as cushy there if you're a "job creator." But, ironically, someone must be creating jobs, because the unemployment rate is about 5%. Yes, you got that right. They pay the job creators less and tax them more, but jobs pay better and are more plentiful. 

And they have this crazy health care system there. If you're Australian, you're covered. 

Is Australia socialist? Hardly. They just have a system of laws and regulations that works more in favor of average Australians and less in favor of the elite. Kind of like the system America had not so long ago. 

Are Arizona's mayors on to something?

By Karl Reiner

The U.S.-Mexico relationship has its good and bad points.  Over $540 billion in merchandise trade moved between the countries in 2012. Mexico ranks third as an American supplier and second as an export market.  There are security problems involving the massive illegal drug trade, illegal migration (mostly from Mexico and Central America) and the flow of smuggled firearms to Mexico.  With Arizona's state leaders focusing mainly on security, the economic benefit of being a border state tends to be ignored.

SB 1215 is moving unobtrusively through the Arizona Legislature.  The bill extends the life of the Office of Sonora (part of the governor's office since 1992) for eight years.  The office works on exchanging information, promoting business and tourism with the state of Sonora, Mexico.  It assists the Arizona-Mexico Commission and keeps tab on the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Can an American-Iranian optimist become president of Iran?

By Karl Reiner

The Iran-Iraq war has been forgotten.  The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the campaign to drive them out is old history.  The 10th anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq is quietly observed as the military effort in Afghanistan slowly winds down.  At the same time, tensions grow between the West and Iran over Iran's nuclear program.  To deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons, UN, U.S. and European Union sanctions have been imposed.

Israel has threatened to take military action unless Iran abandons the program suspected of developing nuclear weapons.  Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, states that the Islamic Republic will retaliate if its nuclear facilities are attacked. Iran will strike Israeli cities. Although negotiations between the West and Iran continue, there is a drift toward war.

Ten Years After the Iraq Invasion, Lessons Remain Unlearned

By Michael Bryan

Now that the Iraq war has been "ended" by Obama's draw down of active combat troops (I scare quote here because of the thousands of embassy personnel and private defense contractors still in country), and the ten year anniversary of the invasion is upon us, it is perhaps time to try for a little perspective on this passage in American political history.

I continue to view the invasion and occupation of Iraq as a massive crime of control fraud perpetrated by the Bush junta to extract hundreds of billions from the public fisc to line the pockets of the corporate welfare state wards known collectively as the defense industry. But the historical treatment of that fraud and its long-term impact on American government and politics is what I think deserves more discussion.

As I write, a concerted effort at historical revision by many of the key players in the Iraq fraud is underway throughout the media. People who perpetrated and participated in the Bush Administration's national security follies now seek to cast the Iraq fraud as a successful, if costly, mission to free the Iraqi people from tyranny.

 

That effort is a subtle poison undermining American security.

Sequester Casts a Shadow

By Karl Reiner

The $85 billion across-the-board federal spending cuts for the current fiscal year have gone into effect.  When the White House and the balky Congress agreed to the sequester cuts in 2011, it was supposed to be a prod to negotiating a better approach to deficit reduction.  The consequences of the blunt cut to federal spending were too appalling to consider.  The sequester deal was the incentive driving the working out of a better arrangement.

It failed because a factionalized Congress, presiding over a depressingly slow economic recovery, has lost its moorings. The fear and anger that fuels the tea party and anti-government groups has driven the Republicans to forgo governance and opt for simplistic solutions appealing to the far right.

Tomato Trade War with Mexico Averted

By Karl Reiner

At the behest of Florida growers, the U.S. Department of Commerce was investigating the charges of low price dumping of Mexican fresh tomatoes in the U.S. market. The tomato dispute could have triggered a trade war with Mexico because Mexican authorities threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on American exports of meat, poultry and grains.

A few days ago, the Commerce Department announced that it had negotiated a solution with the Mexican government and growers.  A draft agreement had been initialed.  The proposed agreement covers imports of all fresh or chilled tomatoes of Mexican origin, except tomatoes for processing.  Mexican fresh tomato exports to the U.S. are valued at approximately $1.9 billion per year.

Past and Present Political Polarization

By Karl Reiner

Last month, President Obama began his second term in office under conditions somewhat improved from four years ago. Back then, the economy was contracting at 5% per year and 600,000 to 800,000 people per month were being dumped into the ranks of the unemployed.

The effects of the Great Recession show how imperfect the tools available to policymakers are.  After complex Wall Street products helped feed the sub-prime housing mess, the resulting crisis had to be met by costly Federal Reserve and Treasury actions that stemmed the slide into depression.  The remedies are unpopular because in saving the  economy, the government had to help a banking sector that contributed mightily to the collapse.

Israel's Elections: Hope Springs Eternal

Posted by Bob Lord

Just when many of us, myself included, were about to slam the door on any hope of sane policy coming from the Israeli government, logic and reason magically prevailed in the Israeli election yesterday. Salon has a good summary of the results here. The results were not entirely magical, as a weakened Netanyahu likely will hold on to his position. But the center and left made enormous gains, despite predicitons throughout the media that Israel would be taking a sharp right turn.

The road ahead in Israel still is daunting, to say the least. Netanyahu, the most sucidal leader in the modern world, and his right-wing cronies will do all they can to push Israel into the abyss. But the election results give us some hope, something many of us had given up just a few days ago. I guess there's a reason they say "hope springs eternal."

Immigration Reform questions for Obama from the National Day Laborer Organizing Network

by Pamela Powers Hannley

Good questions from the National Day Laborer Organizing Network...

Key Questions for the White House on Immigration Reform 

1.  It is widely reported that the Obama administration has deported unprecedented numbers of immigrants, and it is widely suspected that the Department of Homeland Security is operating under a self-imposed a deportation quota.  Is there a deportation quota?  If so, where does it come from, and will it be reduced or eliminated as part of the President’s proposal on immigration reform? [More good questions after the jump.]

Peace activists speak out against the 'militarization of education' in Cochise County (video)

by Pamela Powers Hannley

Fun! Food! Adventure! Smiling young faces!

And killing machines?

The poster pictured here advertises the Aviation Open House at Cochise Community College back in October 2012. The purpose of the open house was to showcase the college's new aviation classrooms, flight simulators, and training facilities. Jobs and education for rural Arizona youth-- what could be more wholesome? Unfortunately, the open house also shined a spotlight on the college's cozy (and a bit creepy) relationship with merchant of death and destruction Northrup Grumman-- as well as the college's disdain for freedom of speech.

Two local members of Women in Black attempted to protest at the event and were ousted-- one for trying to distribute anti-war fliers and the other for posting anti-war fliers around campus. Both women-- both teachers-- say they were exercising their right to free speech and trying to educate college students about the not-so-rosy side of war and the drones they are being trained to built and fly. More details and a Loneprotestor video after the jump.  

Geography, Roads and Consequences

By Karl Reiner

Geography and road systems influence economic and military events.  In the summer of 1863, Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee made the decision to consolidate his army in a small southern Pennsylvania town where roads intersected.  His decision had major consequences.  It resulted in a battle that changed the course of the Civil War and made Gettysburg into a national landmark. 

Infrastructure development played an important role as China became the world's second largest economy.  Its massive road building program is on track to complete over 52,000 miles of expressways by 2020.  Another 167,000 miles of rural roads will have been newly constructed or rebuilt.  The road building program is government managed and financed.  The program is years ahead of schedule, stressing domestic supplies.  China produces about 16 million tons of asphalt a year while it uses 20 million tons.  Imports have to make up the shortfall.

The lack of roads can serve sinister purposes.  The rolling desert country southwest of Tucson is sparsely populated.  Down Rt. 286, about 70 miles from Tucson, is the border port of entry at Sasabe.  The small town of El Sasabe, Sonora sits across the border.  Approximately 60 miles farther south is Altar with a population of about 8,000.

The Dilemma of Afghanistan

By Karl Reiner

The Afghan government is engaged in a tough balancing act, trying to foster national identity while at the same time dodging ethnic and religious pitfalls.  It faces an intimidating task in trying to unite the Afghan people while avoiding a repeat of past mistakes.  Many observers have concluded that the Afghan government is not up to the task.

It is hard to foster literacy and civic education in a traditional multiethnic society hostile to outside influence.  Attempts to change the old ways can meet with resistance.  The people promoting rights for women and education for girls are being shot dead.

Blogging like a fugitive

by Pamela Powers Hannley

In recent months, John McAfee's life has been the stuff B movies are made of.

In a nutshell, the expatriot anti-virus software pioneer had six guard dogs and "a contingent of armed guards" patrolling his estate in Belize; his neighbors didn't like the aggressive, barking dogs, and one filed a formal complaint; the dogs were poisoned; a few days later the neighbor was shot dead; McAfee went into hiding-- including burying himself in his yard (to hide from police in Belize) and faking a heart attack (to be released from jail in Guatemala).  

As if that's not enough to keep a guy busy, apparently McAfee had the time to blog during his ordeal. 

Ragan's PR Daily says that bloggers can take a few queues from McAfee's blog to spice up their writing. How does one "blog like a fugitive"? Read tips from the article after the jump. (Image: John McAfee on his property in Belize. Credit: Brian Finke.)

Reeking of Smugness

Posted by Bob Lord

I periodically receive the viral emails that make their way through the right-wing American Jewish community. Because I'm Jewish by birth, folks think I subscribe to the "Isreal can do no wrong" point of view. The latest piece is a doozy, The Deadly Israeli House, by Daniel Greenfield. This piece has been pasted into an email and is furiously working its way through the vast network of AIPAC affiliated Jews. 

It's worth a read, because it is so emblematic of the absolutely putrid smugness of these zealots. Here's a sample:

The Haunting Legacy of Iran's Ayatollah Khomeini

By Karl Reiner

Iran, formerly known as Persia, has been a regional power since the time of the Greeks and the Roman Empire.  Slightly smaller than Alaska, the proud (some say arrogant) country plainly states that it is Persian not Arab.  An oil producer, with a population of 75 million, Iran has been under the sway of a theocratic system of government since 1979. 

The relationship between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic of Iran began badly. When Islamic revolutionaries seized power in February 1979, the leader of the revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,appointed the moderate Bazargan provisional government to oversee the country until a new constitution was drafted and national elections held.

Although the provisional government attempted to restore order and reestablish government services, it had little support. The country was awash in heavily armed groups determined to implement their own radical ideological agendas.

A Generation Destroyed Before Adulthood

Posted by Bob Lord

While the world has watched and with the assistance of the United States, Israel has effectively destroyed the better part of a generation of Palestinians in Gaza, as Erin Cunningham reports here. No, they're not dead, but over half the children of Gaza suffer from PTSD as a result of Israel's attacks over the years. No surprise there. Children, by the way, comprise about half of Gaza's 1.7 Million people. Factor in the huge numbers of Gaza children who are malnourished because of the limited food supply, and it's clear we've lost the better part of a generation. They may live, but their brains will never function quite right. And those who were malnourished? Their brains won't reach full development either. Cunningham relays this story:

Fatima Qortoum was just 9 years old when she saw the brains of her brother, 7-year-old Ahmed, fall out of his head. He was struck with shrapnel after an Israeli airstrike. That was 2008.

Last week, another one of Fatima’s brothers, 6-year-old Mahmoud, was critically injured when an Israeli attack knocked him to the ground, leaving a nearly three-inch-long gash in his torso and damaging his lungs.

And so it comes as little surprise that Fatima, now 13, like thousands of other children in the Gaza Strip, suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).