Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
"Anyone can go to Baghdad. Real men go to Tehran."
-- Senior Bush Official, May 2003
Remember this supremely arrogant statement from the Neocon war mongers who lied this country into an unnecessary and illegal war with Iraq, and triumphantly declared their willingness to take this country into another war with Iran?
President Barack Obama has an opportunity to turn this supreme arrogance on its head in a "Nixon goes to China" moment in U.S. diplomacy. I would not be suprised if this leads to a state visit by President Obama to Tehran in the next year or so in a major diplomatic initiative.
Obama's first opportunity will come at the United Nations next Tuesday. US and Iran eye diplomatic defrosting at UN:President Barack Obama and Iran's new president may meet briefly next week for the first time, marking a symbolic but significant step toward easing their countries' tense relationship. An exchange of letters between the leaders already has raised expectations for a revival of stalled nuclear talks.
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Both Obama and Rouhani will be in New York next week for the annual meeting of the U.N. General Assembly. The White House hasn't ruled out the possibility of a direct exchange, though spokesman Jay Carney said no meeting is scheduled.
Obama has long said he would be open to discussions with his Iranian counterparts if Tehran shows it is serious about curbing its nuclear program.
"There have been a lot of interesting things said out of Tehran and the new government - and encouraging things," Carney said Thursday. "But actions speak louder than words."
Whether any headway is made on the nuclear issue could hinge on how the U.S. and Iran handle negotiations to dismantle Syria's vast chemical weapons stockpile. Iran is the chief benefactor to Syria ... Yet Iran has been vociferous in its condemnation of chemical weapons attacks in Syria.
[Michael Luhan, a spokesperson for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) announced in a statement today that "The OPCW has received an initial disclosure from the Syrian Government of its chemical weapons programme, which is now being examined by the Technical Secretariat of the Organisation."]
In an op-ed published in Thursday's Washington Post, Why Iran seeks constructive engagement, President Rouhani said Syria "has become the scene of heartbreaking violence" and pledged to help facilitate dialogue between Assad's regime and the rebel opposition.
"But to move beyond impasses, whether in relation to Syria, my country's nuclear program or its relations with the United States, we need to aim higher," Rouhani wrote. "Rather than focusing on how to prevent things from getting worse, we need to think - and talk - about how to make things better. To do that, we all need to muster the courage to start conveying what we want - clearly, concisely and sincerely - and to back it up with the political will to take necessary action."
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Since Rouhani's election in June as the Islamic Republic's president, he and Obama have exchanged letters in what U.S. officials describe as an encouraging easing of Iran's defiance of the U.S. In contrast to his recalcitrant predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Rouhani is widely seen as a moderate politician who may have more autonomy to govern under Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
It's unclear how many letters Obama and Rouhani have exchanged. The U.S. president sent at least one letter after Rouhani's inauguration in early August and Iranian officials say the new president did respond.
White House officials said Obama's letter to Rouhani touched on the long-stalled negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program, one of the main roadblocks to diplomacy between the two countries. Officials said Obama indicated that Washington was ready to resolve the nuclear issue in a way that would allow Iran to demonstrate that its program was exclusively for peaceful purposes.
"The letter also conveyed the need to act with a sense of urgency to address this issue because, as we have long said, the window of opportunity for resolving this diplomatically is open, but it will not remain open indefinitely," Carney said.
Rouhani, in his first interview with a Western media outlet, told NBC News that he thanked Obama for his outreach and "expressed Iran's viewpoint on the issues raised in his letter and some other issues."
[See Max Fisher, Three big lessons from Rouhani’s first Western interview.]
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Any direct exchange between Obama and Rouhani at the United Nations would be largely symbolic, with substantive negotiations on Iran's nuclear program almost certainly reserved for talks with officials from both governments.
Trita Parsi, the president of the National Iranian American Council, said Rouhani has a narrow window of opportunity to show the U.S. and the international community that he's more serious about negotiations than his predecessors.
"He doesn't have much time to show that his approach is more effective than the regime previously," Parsi said. "It's important for him to present something at the U.N. that is very memorable, that really adds to what he has already been doing over the last couple of weeks."
The New York Times adds that Iranian leaders, "seizing on perceived flexibility in a private letter from President Obama, have decided to gamble on forging a swift agreement over their nuclear program with the goal of ending crippling sanctions."
Steve Benen adds this bit of analysis in When crises become opportunities:
The surprising progress has come so suddenly that a senior American diplomat described this week's developments as "head spinning."
So what happens next?
The consensus among many foreign policy observers is that developments in Syria and Iran are linked in ways that may or may not be helpful to the United States. Max Fisher explained well yesterday that President Obama's pragmatism "has sent exactly the right signals to Iran, particularly at this very sensitive moment."
Obama has been consistently clear, even if some members of his administration were not, that his big overriding goal is for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to stop using chemical weapons. First he was going to do that with strikes, meant to coerce Assad. Then, in response to the Russian proposal, Obama signaled he would back off the strikes if Assad gave up his chemical weapons, which is exactly what Obama has always said he wants. He's been consistent as well as flexible, which gave Assad big incentives to cooperate when he might have otherwise dug in his heels.
There are some awfully significant -- and promising -- parallels here with the U.S. standoff with Iran. Obama has been clear that he wants Iran to give up its rogue uranium-enrichment program and submit to the kind of rigorous inspections that would guarantee that its nuclear program is peaceful. He's also been clear that the United States is using severe economic sanctions to coerce Tehran to cooperate and that it would use military force if necessary. The implicit (and sometimes explicit) message to Iran has been: If you abandon your enrichment program, we'll make it worth your while by easing off.
Here's where the parallel with Syria is really important: Iranian leaders distrust the United States deeply and fear that Obama would betray them by not holding up his end of the bargain. That's been a major hurdle to any U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. But seeing Assad's deal with Obama work out (so far) sends the message to Iran that it can trust the United States. It also sends the message that making concessions to the United States can pay off. Iran's supreme leader has been talking a lot lately about flexibility and diplomacy toward the West. So it's an ideal moment for Obama to be demonstrating flexibility and diplomacy toward the Middle East.
There are, of course, plenty of skeptics, who may yet be proven right ... But for now, there is hope. The diplomatic approach in Syria is advancing; tensions with Iran show signs of cooling; and there are even peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians underway for the first time in years.
For more background on the Iranian initiative, see Max Fisher, Rouhani’s Washington Post op-ed, annotated, and Ann Gearen and Jason Rezaian, Iran’s Hassan Rouhani prepares for his debut trip to the United Nations. See also Walter Pincus, Fine Print: Syria groundwork began months ago.
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