How Obama (maybe) wins Arizona

by David Safier

Nate Cohn writes in the New Republic that Obama has at least a fighting chance of taking Arizona. Cohn's basic premise is, Obama underperformed here in 2008 because he was up against our favorite son John McCain and would have had a shot at taking the state against any other Republican candidate.

Arizona was McCain’s home state and Obama probably would have won against a different candidate. In 2004, Bush won Arizona by 10.47 percentage points, but Obama only improved over Kerry’s performance by a net-2 percentage points in Arizona, compared to a net-9.72 percent nationally. If Arizona had moved with the rest of the country, the state would have been a dead heat. But the southwest moved even more decidedly toward Obama than the rest of the country, as Obama made bigger gains among Latino voters than the rest of the country. Indeed, if Obama had improved over Kerry in Arizona by the same amount he did in Colorado, Nevada, or New Mexico, he could have carried Arizona by as much as 5 percentage points.

McCain performed far better with Arizona's Hispanic voters than Romney will. Obama only got 56% of the vote in 2008 while he's currently polling at 74%. That's going to make a big difference, especially with strong voter registration and Get Out The Vote efforts.

The article doesn't mention three other factors that are likely to influence the outcome. Obama didn't contest Arizona in 2008. If he has a strong presence here this year, that will certainly improve his chances. On the other hand, this is likely to be a closer election than in 2008, so you can't really predict Obama's 2012 margins based on what might have happened if McCain weren't the nominee in 2008. And then there's the Mormon factor. Mormons tend to be reliable voters and trend Republican any election year, but Romney will certainly increase the number of Mormon voters who go to the polls, and his margin of victory with that voting bloc should be through the roof.

Bottom line: It could be very close in Arizona, with the victory going to the better run campaign.

Comments

[Cheri]

For one thing...we could start here, and work our way up:)

http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/27/12438334-jeff-flakes-south-africa-problem?lite

[Prup (aka Jim Benton)]

There are lots of things to do. Make sure everyone you know is registered -- and volunteer to help them with any ID problems. (Even set up something that will help the general public with this.) Talk up the Congressional Candidates like Carmona, Barber, Morgan, and take people to their meetings. Attend meetings for both parties' candidates and ask questions, ones for our candidates that will give them openings to discuss our issues, ones for theirs that will challenge them.

There's no reason why private citizens can't buy small ads in local papers -- even a 16th page that just reads "Hey, Jeff Flake, why did you lie about lobbying for South Africa?" or whatever the story of the week is. (If you own a small business, would it be too risky to include politcal commentary -- ideally short and humorous -- in your ads?)

For that matter, get your friends reading Blog for Arizona every day. And if that's too much, and there's a good story -- as there is most days -- print out a few copies and hand them around.

Most of all -- and this is a general suggestion, not aimed specifically at BfAZ readers -- remember, Politics is NOT a spectator sport. Blogging is not 'sports talk radio' for political junkies. You can talk all you want, and the Diamondbacks won't make that player move you want. But in politics you can actually DO something.

[Paul J. Safier]

Dude, he does factor in that 2012 is likely to be closer than 2008. See the last 3 paragraphs of the blog post.

[David Safier]

I don't know that the New Republic piece actually compares the likely national Obama-to-Republican spread in 2012 compared to 2008, and that's what I was talking about. Those last 3 paragraphs are specific to Arizona as I read them. If I'm misreading them, you're going to have to show me where. I admit (proudly) you're a more careful and perceptive reader of political analysis than I am, but in this case, I'm not convinced.

[Cheri]

Dude...a little research gets you info that might be helpful to know. From the 2010 census...and the LDS website. There are approx.375,000 members of the LDS church in this state. From the census...there are 1,895,149 Hispanic/Latino people living in AZ...You know what, I'll bet that if Dems turn out and vote, we'll win. That simple.

[Thane "Goldie" Eichenauer]

In 2008 John McCain got 53.6% of the vote (in Arizona) and Obama got 45.1% (leaving 1.3% for other). Any election is a toss up and past performance (of the Republican Party candidate) is no prediction of future results.

I think that anybody who think that John McCain was a home town (or home state) favorite overlooks the fact that there are plenty of folks who remember John McCain as one of the Keating Five. Further they forget John McCain's general advocacy of war and his little ditty "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-zoPgv_nYg

Further there is John McCain's on again off again advocacy of gun control:
http://xrl.us/bnc43r (Link to webcache.googleusercontent.com)

I paid attention to John McCain's actions and I wasn't impressed. I rather think that Romney's distance from Arizona will work to his advantage as far as voters in Arizona are concerned.

[NidanGoju]

Election 2012: Arizona President
Arizona: Romney 54%, Obama 41%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/arizona/election_2012_arizona_president

[Cheri]

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Rassmussen....HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! That was good. Thanks. I needed that.