Romney Leading in AZ: Just Don't Run With an Arizonan on the Ticket

by Michael Bryan

The latest polling from Public Policy Polling (PDF link) indicates that Romney is leading in Arizona by 7 points (50%-43%), which is within the margin of error (+/-4.4%), but likely represents a small true advantage.

I don't find that terribly surprising, given the GOP registration advantage and the strong Mormon population and activation in Arizona. Arizona will be closer than 2008, and Obama may actually win Arizona this year, but it will be a damn close thing.

What I did find VERY surprising, were the polling results when a potential Vice Presidential candidate was added to the mix. The scamps at PPP added some of the top political figures from Arizona as potential running mates for Romney: Governor Brewer, Senator John McCain, and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

Adding Janet to the ticket actually HARMS Romney! He loses 2% when she's the VP - in Arizona! No favorite daughter effect for our Governor!

Senator McCain doesn't fair any better. Given the cratering of his popularity in his own party, that he doesn't make it MUCH worse for Romney is actually what is surprising. I guess you can just chalk it up to the fact that many GOP voters are already holding their noses to vote for Romney, so they can't really smell the VP.

Then there is America's "Toughest Sheriff" Arpaio. At a poorly preserved 70-something, Joe is even less likely a VP than the mouldering McCain, but PPP tried him out, none-the-less. The results were almost to hand the race to Obama.

Now, all of these results are also within the margin of error, so they are all statistically the same, but what is clear, is that adding any of these top GOP local leaders to the Romney ticket does not improve Romney's performance - just the opposite, in fact.

Arizona really LOVES it favorite sons and daughters... NOT!

 

Comments

[David Pinar]

The PPP poll also had a poll with Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson included and that reduced Romney's lead - 45% Romney/41% Obama/9% Johnson. And Johnson is still largely unknown at this point - 7% had a favorable view of him, 14% unfavorable but 80% not sure. Johnson could make the difference in Arizona - remember Gabby's margin of victory over Kelly in 2010 was less than the number of votes the Libertarian received, and he was painfully bad.

[Cheri]

Important ad to see. Can you please post? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=da9hpDOY-Ig

Text:
There's been a lot of talk recently about Bain Capital and Mitt Romney's history running the company, the companies they bought, the workers who lost their jobs.
But that's how business works, right? I mean, I feel bad for the workers, but it's not like Mitt Romney invented the

system.

Besides, it's not like it affected me.

Except that it did.

See, when Bain took companies like Ampad and Armco steel into bankruptcy, they shorted the companies'

pension funds, forcing the federal government, meaning you and me, to pick up the tab.

All these people going on and on about Bain fail to mention that it really did affect you. If you pay taxes.

I do. And I always thought the money was going to things like schools and roads and making sure the people

who fight for us have the right equipment.

I didn't know that my money was cleaning up the messes made by pirate financiers like Mitt Romney.

Even before he ran for office.

I'm US taxpayer Louie Ludwig and I approve this message.

[Thane "Goldie" Eichenauer]

Isn't there a rule or a law against screwing up company pension plans?

[Cheri]

Obviously not.This is what he did to make his money, then you and I, as taxpayers, were on the hook. I think that maybe there is a rule about the COMPANY screwing up the pension plans of its employees, but once this buyout business happens, I guess all bets are off. This was Romney's way of making big bucks!

[mbryanaz]

There are laws regarding employer provided pension changes. They are not terribly effective and there is quite an industry around advising companies how to legally manipulate and drain value from employee pension plans. A very good look at how 100s of billions in pension benefits have been used to pad corporate profits is "Retirement Heist" by Ellen Schultz: http://www.amazon.com/Retirement-Heist-Companies-Plunder-American/dp/1591843332/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1338232573&sr=8-1