Arizona's Single Shot Districts: When One Vote is More Powerful than Two

By Michael Bryan

Because Democrats are the minority party in Arizona, and so many of our state legislative districts are distinctly non-competitive, there are a number of districts where it actually makes much more sense for Democrats to only use one of the their two votes for state legislature in order to help elect a Democrat in their district.

In essence, by single-shotting your legislative vote, you can help a Democrat win in a district where Republicans would otherwise dominate.

There are a few districts in which defending Democratic incumbents depends on single-shotting the Democratic candidate. These are districts 11 (Eric Meyer, see Meyer's statement on single-shotting his race), 20 (Rae Waters), LD 25 (Pat Fleming, note there is a second Dem running in this race, see discussion of this situation below), and 26 (Nancy Young Wright, see David's discussion of LD 26 endorsements). To hold these seats Dems and Independents alike need to single-shot the incumbent Dems in significant numbers. In three of these districts the incumbent is the only Democrat on the ticket because the local parties clearly understood that a second nominee would have significantly imperiled the incumbents, so it is an easy choice to single shot. In LD 25, however, there are two Dems on the ticket, but I suggest that voters single shot Fleming to ensure her re-election in this tough season. Ruben Ortega is a worthy candidate and good man who brings important experience and ideas to the table, but unless Fleming receives significant single shotting, an incumbent Democratic seat will be imperiled. Voters need to be aware of how critical it is not to use their second vote in all of these districts, even if (as in LD 25) it is a difficult choice.

There are also districts in which a single-shot makes a lot of sense to help pick up a new seat and only a single Democrat is running for a House seat.

In Southern Arizona, LD 30 fits that description. Andrea Dalessandro is running as the only Democrat against David Gowan and Ted Vogt. Andrea has been running like a champ since her last bid for the seat in 2006 when she came within 3% of winning. If you would like to see some balance in the LD 30 delegation, single shot only Andrea. The district registration is R=56K, D=40K, I=39K.

Elsewhere around the state, LD 8 and 12 represent additional single-shot opportunities to pluck a single seat out of Republican-dominated districts.

LD 12's Angela Cotera is the sole Democrat on the House ticket in another difficult district. Unlike Ruth McClung, she is a legitimate rocket scientist, holding a doctorate in applied physics from Stanford with stints at JPL and Steward Observatory. Her husband is a nuclear engineer working for Palo Verde. Now that's a space-age couple. The district registration is more favorable to Dems than most at R=53K, D=48K, I=50K, a swing district really, but there is a Green, Justin Dahl on the ballot (and he's a real one, not a GOP straw man). It is therefore imperative that Dems and Independents who want balance in the district not split their vote between the Dem and the Green. By voting only for the Dem candidate in this race, you can most effectively help protect progressive values in LD 12.

LD 8's Dr. John Kriekard, holds a doctorate in educational administration and is probably better qualified for the state legislature than any other non-incumbent Democratic candidate this cycle. But the demographics of the district are such that without a solid single-shot effort by Democrats and significant single-shotting by Independents for Kriekard, it will be very difficult for him to win. He has received the solo endorsement of the AZ Republic (in a surprise, they refused to endorse either R, including incumbent John Kavanagh) and the endorsement of retiring Republican state senator Carolyn Allen, who's support means a lot in that district. He's got an uphill battle, but this one could be a surprise pick up for the Ds. However, the district registration is much more difficult than LD 12 at R=57K, D=29K, I=38K.

Next, there are districts which Republicans truly have a headlock on. The only way to give them heartburn and to make the Dems shine on election day is to single-shot. Some of these races have only a single Dem on the ticket, such LD 1 (Lindsey Bell), LD 4 (Karina Guerrero), LD 6 (Teri Conrad, up against the buffoonish Carl Seel of Daily Show fame), LD 9 (Shirley McAllister), and LD 19 (Kit Filbey, home of the odious Kirk Adams).

Then there are some races in which more than one Dem is running deep behind Republican lines. They both deserve credit, but to make the strongest impact only one should get your vote. I'm not going to try to parse them all, but if you live in a deeply Republican district and have two Dems on the ballot, choosing just one is the best strategy. The problem is coordination in choosing 'The One'. The Democratic Party in Arizona, and I, for that matter, are very hesitant to do this because playing favorites among its general election nominees is a very dicey proposition. This is what comments are for; if you have suggestions in these districts please share.

Finally, there are sometimes multi-member non-legislative races where a single shot makes good sense. With the sad passing of Jorge Garcia, one such race is the Corporation Commission race. Jorge's family wants people to still vote for him, and his name will still appear on general election ballots, so far be it from me to gainsay their wishes. I will simply point out that single-shotting David Bradley makes sound strategic sense at this point, though I don't think even David would ask for that strategy to be used.

Comments

[Jenn]

I haven't had time to read this post yet, but thank you for putting bullet holes in it. It made me LOLs.

[Jlamb1313]

Really good advice here for single shotting Andrea Dalessandro in LD-30. This place could use some sane representation in the state House.

[Andrew1041]

David Safier would certainly not approve of the violent imagery and language chosen here. I remember when Sarah Palin 'targeted' districts, he went all aflutter. Just saying.

[Bill Astle]

Michael;
Too bad you have repeated a lots of myths about "single shotting". There are lots of good reasons for casting a single vote and "wasting" your other vote in AZ state House races but there is also lots of nonsense out there.
If two Dems are running you never hurt either if you cast both votes for Dems. Of course you should never vote for one D and one R unless you wish to neutralize both your votes.
If only one D is running then casting only one vote makes sense. Unfortunately some people think this doubles up your vote but it doesn't.
The real problems go back to the nominating stage.
Despite statements to the contrary there is no historical record that demonstrates that either the R's or the D's have gained an advantage by running a single candidate. I have asked local and state Dem party officers for the studies which support running one candidate and have not gotten anything which in fact indicates an advantage.
Another problem is the anti-democratic (un-American?) nature of a campaign that says "Don't vote". At least that's what you should say to make a single-shot strategy work.
Furthermore, what kind of message are we, Democrats, sending when we say we don't have even two qualified people to run? Rather than concede a seat to the R's we should at least fight in every case!

Bill Astle

[Kbondelli]

Bill is correct. The single shot strategy is effective when only a single Democrat is running for House with two open seats. However, using a single shot with two Democrats can have the opposite effect.

As you say in your post: "I'm not going to try to parse them all, but if you live in a deeply Republican district and have two Dems on the ballot, choosing just one is the best strategy. The problem is coordination in choosing 'The One'." Let's say for argument that turnout for a House district is 2,000 Dems, 2,000 Ind, and 2,500 GOP. If all Democratic voters single shot evenly, GOP voters hold for both, and Independents break to the Dem candidates by 1,000 votes, the Democrats lose both seats:

DEM 1 and 2: 1,000 D Votes + 1,500 I Votes + 0 R Votes = 2,500 Votes
GOP 1 and 2: 2,500 R Votes + 500 I Votes + 0 D Votes = 3,000 Votes

If Democrats voted for both Dem candidates, those candidates would both be elected:

DEM 1 and 2: 2,000 D Votes + 1,500 I Votes + 0 R Votes = 3,500 Votes
GOP 1 and 2: 2,500 R Votes + 500 I Votes + 0 D Votes = 3,000 Votes

Even if all Democrats voted for the same single candidate, we would win only 1 seat when we could have had 2. Unless there is a specific Democrat running that would be worse than the Republican, a single shot strategy only shoots our party in the foot.