Bee was recently endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. No real surprise considering how often that organization (short-sightedly, IMO) endorses Republicans in an anachronic gesture to a long-defunct pedigree of economic common sense.
But Bee's endorsement predicts far less how the Arizona business community will actually vote and donate this cycle than Bee would have you believe:
"It is an honor to receive the support of the business community. In Washington, I will work to promote economic growth and job creation. A prosperous America begins with a strong economy. ”
It's highly debatable whether the Chamber's endorsement actually equates to "support of the business community." Bee is indulging in a figure of speech (i.e. a logical fallacy).
In reality, despite what the U.S. Chamber might think, the Arizona business community is far from bullish about Arizona's and America's economy: only 11% think the economy is good, and none rated it excellent. Yet Bee is relying on Bush and his allies for fund-raising firepower, and promising to continue the very Bush economic policies that have dumped our economy in the toilet... and flushed.
Business opinion leaders think the U.S. and Arizona economies are in serious trouble, and conditions for each are deteriorating at a rapid pace. The poll showed that 63 percent of Arizona small business owners think the U.S. economy is getting worse, while 57 percent thought local conditions are deteriorating. These folks are hardly likely to vote for more of the same from GOP pols like Bee. His willingness to throw his own caucus under the bus on the Arizona budget not withstanding...
Given such deep pessimism about what Bushies like Bee have wrought, to presume that business owners and business-minded voters will overlook these political facts on the ground on the strength of a knee-jerk Chamber endorsement is... overly optimistic.
Add together the devastating political environment for the GOP in general this year, the specific concerns of business leaders revealed by this polling, and the defection of a local eminence grise and moderate bell-weather Jim Kolbe (due though it may be to Bee's flirting with the agents of intolerance of the Right), and the sum is that Bee has serious trouble in the pro-business moderate wing of his own party and pragmatic Independents.
I still don't forsee a blow-out re-election for Giffords, by any means. She hews too close to the "Go Along to Get Along" DNC/Blue Dog playbook to inspire any real enthusiasm. She refuses to provide the sort of contrasts with Bee that could blow the race wide open. When she wins, it will be due to the GOP making stale dog food out of their own brand, and an enthusiastic Obama-inspired turnout in her district; and it will still only be an anemic margin (much less than that she achieved over conservative bete noir Graf in 2006).
Bee's continual stumbles and failure to distinguish himself from the failure of the Bush years and movement conservatism have ensured that he doesn't stand a chance of unseating her, though Gabby's own failings as a leader will ensure that he'll come closer than he has any right to.
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