Graf - Giffords Race Narrowing?

Link: RealClearPolitics - Polls.

The latest Zogby-Reuters poll is showing a narrowing gap (8 points) between Graf and Giffords. Graf basically hasn't moved at 37%, but the poll is reading a drop off in support for Giffords to 45% and concominant increase in undecided voters to 16%

The poll was taken between 9/25 and 10/2 from a sample of 500 likely voters with a MOE of 4.5%. The polling was conducted over too a long a period of time for my taste, but the result is none-the-less troubling if it presages a trend toward former Giffords supporters stepping back into a undecided territory. This result is still within the extreme margins of previous polls and may possibly represent only an expected sampling variation, and not actual movement in the electorate. But it could be the other way, too.

If this trend holds up in multiple polls, this might be a tightening of the race, though representing mostly a drop-off from Gabby to undecideds, rather than any meaningful gain for Graf. I've heard rumors of a as-yet-unreleased poll from UofA's KUAT showing the gap between Graf and Giffords as narrow as 6%, which would confirm a trend, but I haven't got solid sourcing on that as yet and am looking into it.

Comments

[Dwight D. Leister: Chair: Committee To Elect]

I was watching a TV ad and thought it was a Giffords ad ,but to my surprise it was an ad for a real estate agency where everyone supported what great work they do for everyone.

When I saw this ad I realized Giffords had brainwashed me into thinking she is for everything and everyone is for Giffords.

When you can not tell the difference between a commercial and a paid political announcement its time to move on.

She has oversold herself to the public, I hope she can live up to everyone in the world supporting her campaign,and some not from this world!

[Dwight D. Leister: Chair: Committee To Elect]

Along this same vein of thought I just saw something I could NOT believe on a Giffords TV ad; Sheriff Dupnik of Pima County in a Cowboy hat and Cowboy outfit saying Giffords will secure the Border after Dupnik cryed on the shoulders of Governor Janet Napolitano begging her NOT to sign into Arizona law a bill that would force and enable Sheriffs to arrest illegals' and jail them,Dupnik said making him arrest illegals' would take Deputies away from protecting American Citizens and I wrote Dupnik putting him on notice early this year telling him he has become the problem not the solution to illegal immigration by not enforcing the laws now on the books that permitted millions of illegals' to enter the United States through Pima County !

Giffords needs to pull Dupnik off the air immediatley before someone adds one and one and gets two to a phoney TV AD with a Phoney Sheriff who never supported securing the Border as the other Sheriffs of Arizona, Texas New Mexico and California all went to Congress to ask for Federal help EXCEPT DUPNIK!

If Giffords does NOT expose Dupnik I will fax the letter I sent to him to all news outlets and blow the lid off of both of there LIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kralmajale2002]

I am a little surprised that the arguments all overthe place have been so launched and layed on border politics. Republicans said back in March that they worried about national trends, scandal and would make this election about local issues where they could win. They are doing it and if there is a tightening at all, it is because this is what people are talking about. Instead of showing the Republican views as extreme, democrats are answering with tough rhetoric, the fact that Republicans haven't solved it either, and a very quiet "pathway to citizenship" which is basically the President's message.

This has bothered me since I saw Pederson's first ad on the subject and now that I have seen in from every major Democrat in the race.

Here is my point. The more we talk about the border the less we talk about Iraq, the gutting of our constitution, the scandals, and the out and out lies to us by this Congress and Administration. The more we talk about the border, the more we talk on the turf of Republicans--that is their only issue.

Last, I don't think most people really believe it when demos say they are tougher on the border than republicans. This could be a chance to teach people about the racism that comes with such arguments, the fact that most business folk really want the labor, and that Southern Arizona and its economy would be doomed without those crossing to shop here and, yes, work here.